# What Are Your Thoughts on the Future of Fantasy Writing?



## Philip Overby (Jan 20, 2012)

I've often thought about this, but what do you think the future of fantasy writing will be?

Do you think it will follow the direction of the New Weird bunch (a re-birth of pulpish fiction), more "traditional" fantasy such as Tolkien, more of the gritty, realistic style of Martin, Erikson, and Abercrombie, or an influx of more urban fantasy which seems to be on the climb.  Maybe a new style?

So what do you think?  Where do you see fantasy trends going in the next couple of years?  Which authors writing now do you think will be the future Tolkiens, Martins, Howards, Jordans, and such?


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## sashamerideth (Jan 20, 2012)

I think that there will be an increase in the number of novellas and shorter works that start to break out of the more rigid genre and sub-genre structure. A political espionage story involving homosexual and flamboyant Orcs... 

Without the gatekeepers of traditional publishing, even stranger settings will show up, and I think we will be spoilt for choice. It probably won't be edited very well though...

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## Philip Overby (Jan 20, 2012)

I also think that shorter works will become the norm.  The growth of self-publishing may lead to more indie publishers who can provide editing duties so maybe they can take care of those issues.  I like the occasional door-stopper myself, but I think epics may be less in the future.  Kindle has made it easier to access anything, so maybe more and more progressive fiction can be born out of that.


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## Legendary Sidekick (Jan 20, 2012)

It's a double-edged sword. More writers means more otherwise-undiscovered talent, but more not-so-talented writers too. My overall feeling is positive, however.

I can e-publish short stories to test the waters in the hopes that, someday, a traditionally published novel may become a possibility for me. Or, if I'm really lucky, I'll have a small circle of readers (hundreds) like my brother does with his indie comic book and won't mind if that's as far as I ever go.


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## Graham Irwin (Jan 20, 2012)

I guess it's about definitions. 

Fantasy as we know it came from Romances, like King Arthur, which grew out of myths and fairytales. One could argue that fantasy is the oldest genre there is! I think that the genre, like science fiction, adapts itself to the times it's being used in. Today, more post-apocalyptic type stuff, as that's where the world is at. In Tolkien's time, huge epic stuff because of WWII.

Fantasy will live on and change with the imaginations of people!


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## Telcontar (Jan 20, 2012)

I will make no attempt to predict genre, but as mentioned above the structure and acceptable length of stories will change, trending down. If GRRM had written Ice and Fire in ten years, he might have written in smaller chunks, releasing much smaller books. I think long series will start to be released this way, in normal sized novels instead of the bone-breakers (with later-published editions collecting the chunks back into giant tomes, again).

Furthermore, things like novellas - which had no real place in print publishing unless you were already a famous author - will explode. With eBooks length is not an issue. Write the story in the length it needs to be told in. HOWEVER there will need to be some sort of backlash, eventually. The loosening up of length caused by eBooks are going to result in a lot of bloated stories. Writers will need to learn to write succinctly even better than we have before.

Hm, that turned into a prediction of publishing in general...


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## sashamerideth (Jan 20, 2012)

Any predictions will need to include the impact of ereaders. I think that maybe with the novella length story we will also see epics, longer than we have seen before. It may not be a good thing.

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## Graham Irwin (Jan 20, 2012)

I read a good point someone made the other day: that most people in the world will never own an e-reader. Issues with lithium for the batteries they require, and the metals they use, along with the green movement will show that traditionally-produced books are more ecologically responsible than e-readers. They use trees, true, but trees are renewable. Precious metals are not. 

There is also something very intimate about holding a book that will never be replaced. The little notes people add to the margins over the years, the memory of the little corner in the story that you found it in, the way it bends any way you want to lay, the heft and feel of it. The cover art, the back cover. Humans like collections, it's sort of what we do to pass our time, and the physical artifact of a loved story, even one discovered on an ereader, will be one people want for a long, long time.


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## Steerpike (Jan 20, 2012)

Most people in the world probably also aren't consistent consumers of fiction, either.

The question is, out of people who buy a lot of fiction, how many will have ereaders? I suspect the answer to that in coming years is going to be 'a lot.'


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## Chilari (Jan 20, 2012)

Building on what Sasha said about length changes due to e-readers, I wouldn't be surprised to see a resurgence in episodic written fiction, like how writers published bits of stories in newspapers month by month of whatever - Charles Dickens being one such example. Though I think in the modern age rather than publishing in a magazine, people will instead publish chapters at a time, a month or so apart, for very small amounts with small profit margins, or even for free, in order to build their repuation in preparation for future works.

Though admittedly that's really about the future of publsihing, not the future of fantasy.

It is my hope that we'll see a growth in enjoyment of low fantasy - that is, stories set in different world with their own societies and histories and geographies, but with no or minimal magic. That's what I write, hence that being my hope; but I feel it is a means by which I can explore human nature without being bound by historical fact, or restricted by technology, and with the benefit of freedom of situation and the occasional inclusion of background or incidental magic.

I find it more likely, however, that the most popular fantasy will be the most alien. Fantasy, in part, is about escapism, about experiencing something so very different to real, daily life; it is about wonder and excitement and characters doing things that no modern human ever has the chance to do or experience. As such, I suspect, people will not want to read explorations of the darker sides of human nature set in a different world, but rather about exciting heroes who are cool and witty and do the right thing and stand up to the big man.

Meanwhile I'll keep writing what I want to write and be pleased for those who gain greater success writing what they want to write.


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## Benjamin Clayborne (Jan 20, 2012)

Graham Irwin said:


> I read a good point someone made the other day: that most people in the world will never own an e-reader. Issues with lithium for the batteries they require, and the metals they use, along with the green movement will show that traditionally-produced books are more ecologically responsible than e-readers. They use trees, true, but trees are renewable. Precious metals are not.



Fifteen years ago, you could reasonably have said the exact same thing about mobile phones, but there are now more than 5 billion mobile phones _currently in use_ in the world. There might be other reasons why e-readers won't become as prevalent as mobile phones, but resource usage isn't plausibly one of them.


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## sashamerideth (Jan 20, 2012)

Chilari said:
			
		

> Building on what Sasha said about length changes due to e-readers, I wouldn't be surprised to see a resurgence in episodic written fiction, like how writers published bits of stories in newspapers month by month of whatever - Charles Dickens being one such example. Though I think in the modern age rather than publishing in a magazine, people will instead publish chapters at a time, a month or so apart, for very small amounts with small profit margins, or even for free, in order to build their repuation in preparation for future works.
> 
> Though admittedly that's really about the future of publsihing, not the future of fantasy.



That's is exactly what I am doing with my science fiction serial. I need to put mention of it on my blog. Sold one copy on Amazon already. Woohoo!

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## Chilari (Jan 20, 2012)

sashamerideth said:


> That's is exactly what I am doing with my science fiction serial. I need to put mention of it on my blog. Sold one copy on Amazon already. Woohoo!



My prediction is already coming true! I am totally awesome.


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## Aegrus (Jan 20, 2012)

If I had to guess, I'd say E-readers will make book releases more episodic, as mentioned above, but I also think that a lot poor writing is going to flood the market from inexperienced writers seeking to publish electronically.  Think: Soap Operas of the litarary world, with stilted plots, stereotyped characters, and outlandish episodes released constantly every few weeks.  Deaths and nonsensical resurrections will be common.

Eventually, the bad writers will become so prolific that all readers of fantasy will be branded as outcasts and nerds again, and the genre will revert back to equal standing with sci fi.

I hope that doesn't happen, but it's seeming more and more like it will, what with so many people already publishing angsty short stories on E-Readers and almost blatantly ripping off Tolkein.


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## sashamerideth (Jan 20, 2012)

Chilari said:
			
		

> My prediction is already coming true! I am totally awesome.



Yeah, I would be pushing it harder, but I want at least three episodes up or at least ready to go. I don't know if my fantasy will split into nice episodic bits yet, but if it does, then I'll be pushing it.

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## sashamerideth (Jan 20, 2012)

Aegrus said:
			
		

> If I had to guess, I'd say E-readers will make book releases more episodic, as mentioned above, but I also think that a lot poor writing is going to flood the market from inexperienced writers seeking to publish electronically.  Think: Soap Operas of the litarary world, with stilted plots, stereotyped characters, and outlandish episodes released constantly every few weeks.  Deaths and nonsensical resurrections will be common.
> 
> Eventually, the bad writers will become so prolific that all readers of fantasy will be branded as outcasts and nerds again, and the genre will revert back to equal standing with sci fi.
> 
> I hope that doesn't happen, but it's seeming more and more like it will, what with so many people already publishing angsty short stories on E-Readers and almost blatantly ripping off Tolkein.



That's why I never buy an ebook unless it has been reviewed and has at least three stars. I wish whoever bought episode 1 of Rosy would review it or at least rate it. I'm sure it's one of you people.

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## Devor (Jan 20, 2012)

I think that as the quantity of the available material goes up, the traditional gatekeepers will become more important, not less, in filtering quality stories from the rest.  I think we're going to find that, within about a decade, they'll be putting more work into developing individual stories to help them stand out, and we'll be seeing co-authors and writing teams becoming more mainstream.

As for fantasy, I would expect that if we knew the direction it was going next, we'd be writing those stories instead of wondering about them.  I'd like to see a more robust connection between the world and the story being told, but that could just be the way I like to write.


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## Philip Overby (Jan 20, 2012)

I guess when I asked this question, I was more or less thinking about the direction of fantasy or what trends you think may pick up again.  It's interesting that so many people have directly linked technology to the rise of different types of fantasy.  It's hard to ignore that, of course, but maybe the better question would have been, "Where Do You Want to See Fantasy Go?"  I know that if we could predict what would be popular in the future, then we would be writing that (at least I think?).  

I think traditional publishing should always exist in some form.  I think it exists for a reason.  But I'm interested that if new technology may give rise to new and exciting fantasy that traditional publishers just don't want to touch for various reasons (content, length, etc.)


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## Amanita (Jan 21, 2012)

An interesting subject.
I'm not sure about the future popularity of E-readers. At the moment, I hardly see any of them while many people on the train for example still read paper books. I'm not owning one yet either, but it might change because I'd like to be able to read the "independend" e-published books discussed above.  At the moment, many readers still like to have books with pretty covers rather than electronic files but that might change, as it did with music, I don't know.

Concerning fantasy trends I believe that stories primarly written for teenagers with strong ties to the real world combined with fantastical elements will stay popular. Teenagers are still the people most likely to have time to read and it's still seen as more acceptable for them to spent plenty of time dreaming of strange worlds or magic than for adults. We might not like that, but I believe it's how many people feel. 
Harry Potter probably is the best proof for the fact that people are still prepared to read very long books if those books are appealing enough. And the series has been loved by people generally interested in fantasy as well as by those who are not, by children, teenagers adults alike. 
Books like A Song of Fire and Ice probably will always have their loyal following but never become mainstream, because most people simply don't want to spent hours reading about the nasty sides of medieval life and about human cruelty. If someone wants to deal with the latter, books set in the real world dealing with historical issues are more interesting and enjoy greater social acceptance. 
Classical low-tech fantasy world coming of age and fighting villains stories will probably keep appealing to a larger audience, but they probably won't become mainstream either. The time of low technology "where wars were still noble" is much farther away from us than it was for example for Tolkien and most people don't really believe in good and noble wars anymore, at least not in Europe. 
For comical fantasy and weirder settings it will probably be similar.

That's what I believe even though I don't claim that it's true. Maybe it's just mirroring my personal preferrences but the best seller-lists seem to confirm it at the moment. (With the exception of Eragon, the success of which I absolutely cannot explain. It's an example of people still reading thick books however.)
As no one know that the future brings, completely new concepts might emerge as well, with the rise of other countries such as China and India fantasy inspired by their mythology might become more common as well.


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## grahamguitarman (Jan 23, 2012)

I don't know where fantasy is going TBH, but I'm hoping that the rise of e-publishing will encourage more experimental fantasy writing, that breaks the moulds as it were.  And hopefully if the publishers see that sort of fantasy gaining popularity in the indie market, then they will start to pick it up mainstream.  This does happen, I don't know why this example comes to mind (apart from my kids loving it) but Teenage mutant turtles started out as an indie comic, that grew to become a huge if annoying market success.  With e-publishing the ease of making indie material is improved considerably, so hopefully the ability to influence the market will increase.

But yeah, I forsee more inventive fantasy coming out, which evolves beyond the traditional medieval European framework.


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## Kevin O. McLaughlin (Jan 24, 2012)

I agree with the length comments above.

Already, we're seeing short stories make a huge resurgence. The almost dead novella is back with a vengeance, and novels in the 40-60k word range are suddenly common, where just three years ago they were rare.

Part of this is that freedom to write stories to whatever length you want. But part of this is simple economics:

It takes longer to write one 150k doorstopper (can we CALL a novel that now, with over half of the fiction sold in the US this month expected to be ebook formats?) than it does to create three 50k novels. The shorter works are just simpler to create. But readers (right now anyway) are happy to pay novel prices for a 50k word book, but are unwilling to pay 3x that for a 150k word book by the same writer.

In other words, if you're a writer with a fanbase willing to pay $5 for your latest 50k work, you're unlikely to sell many copies of a 150k word for $15.

So that 150k book is more than three times as hard, but you'll get much less than three time as much income from it. AND, you'll produce less books per year - but there's very clear evidence that the more titles an author produces per year, the better all those works will sell (assuming all are good, well written, well edited, well produced stories).

So more books means more sales per book, and more books means more books to sell. Shorter works means more books per year, which means more income for the writer AND more visibility for all those works.

Added up, it means there is going to be a very strong economic force pushing book length down.


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## Benjamin Clayborne (Jan 24, 2012)

Kevin O. McLaughlin said:


> It takes longer to write one 150k doorstopper (can we CALL a novel that now, with over half of the fiction sold in the US this month expected to be ebook formats?) than it does to create three 50k novels. The shorter works are just simpler to create. But readers (right now anyway) are happy to pay novel prices for a 50k word book, but are unwilling to pay 3x that for a 150k word book by the same writer.
> 
> In other words, if you're a writer with a fanbase willing to pay $5 for your latest 50k work, you're unlikely to sell many copies of a 150k word for $15.



Hm. My NIP is... well, I'm not sure how long it is now, but it's probably going to be 160-170k once it's finished and edited, but I was planning on selling it for $3.99. Now I'm beginning to consider splitting it into multiple parts, although, again, I have zero experience with marketing. Maybe it would be worth it to split it into parts of about 50k (or less?), sort of serializing it...

Bah. Cart, horse. I need to finish the damn thing first.  On the other hand, maybe I don't? I'm not a big fan of series that go on forever -- I want to tell a story, and have it end, and be done with it so I can move on to something else. Maybe it would make sense to release it in smaller parts for $1.99 or $2.99 apiece (that's the 70% royalty level on Amazon so I kind of wouldn't want to go below that). I could always release an omnibus edition later on for $6 or $7 that combines all the parts. The story isn't really structured to be split that way... although there are some cliffhanger points it could be split at... Hm.

Augh. All so confusing.


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## Graham Irwin (Jan 24, 2012)

The first two books of the trilogy I'm currently working on are 80k and 100k, respectively. The third book should come in at around 90k, from what I can sort of predict from my outlining. I released the first book as a stand-alone on Amazon (where I can't decide if 99 cents or 2.99 is a better price), and will do the same for the second in a few weeks here. I have another story planned , set about 500 years after the events of the first but in the same world, that I intend to split into three books as well. Regardless of recent trends, serialization is an excellent way to tell an episodic story, which mine happens to be. 

At the same time, I'm not writing for our age, specifically. The issue of e-readers and their impact on literature isn't that big a deal to me. I don't plan on writing much in the way of fantasy outside my two trilogies and a mini starter-story. I am definitely writing with the idea that the end result will be one cohesive work, and exactly how that comes to fruition is of little consequence to me. I could happily wait five years or so to finish all seven books and then release the whole shabang as one giant tome, but I like sharing my story with my friends as I write it, so I have broken down the work into easily digestible bits.


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## Kevin O. McLaughlin (Jan 24, 2012)

Benjamin Clayborne said:


> Bah. Cart, horse. I need to finish the damn thing first.



To quote the old guy from the Karate Kid movies...  "Hit nail on head."  

Hey, keep one eye on what's going on, so you won't be lost when you're done. But focus on getting the writing done first. If you finish six months from now, EVERYTHING might be different. If it takes you another year, everything WILL be different. The only guarantee right now in publishing is that it's changing with stunning speed right now, and what was true six months prior is unlikely to be reliable.

But a finished novel is still a work completed, ready to utilize in whatever manner is best at that point in time.


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## pmmg (Oct 13, 2022)

I think this question takes on new relevance everyday. And I wish I had my fingers on the pulse so I could say without question it will go this direction or not, but who can say really. But I have some thoughts to share...

I think the world is just waiting for the next big thing. re-makes and re-boots of old classics is just the result of a dearth of something better. The current powers behind creative mediums seem to believe that 'woke' is what the cry is for, and they are giving it in droves. I think they are missing that there is rising a strong rejection to that. And I think they are setting themselves up for replacement.

I think traditional fantasy will find a resurgence in developing attitudes, and writers of more traditional fantasy will start to get more notice. I would not be surprised if the next big 'next' is something along this vein.

At the same time, I think the world is split. Consumers can now choose which world view they wish to live in and immerse themselves completely in it, and that but for few exceptions, can shield themselves forever from that which doesn't fit it. So, even in a market that favors one or the other, there still should still be an audience for all.

With the arrival of the many ways to self publish, I would expect that many things will arrive that would never have made it past gate keepers before, and from that I expect to see a wider array of ideas that has the potential to be something never seen before. But I suspect even there, only a small amount of it will rise from the slush to become widely known.

I fear however, that writing is moving on to become not just a thing of the past, but a thing of the pasts past. When new creative types come of age, and look to create, what medium do they pick? Well, I think it will be less the big screen as time goes on, and even less the written word. Quick media and video games seem to be the near future to me, and book readers will likely shrink to a smaller percentage of the population (course population grows, so many actual numbers may not change). And of course, I don't even need 1% to be a top seller so...

I often feel like the cost/benefit is not here for marketability. It takes a lot of effort to write these things, and the return vs the effort is few and far between. While I do intend to enter the market, I would do so knowing that mostly its for my own purposes, and not likely to have much return.

But...I still feel compelled to write it, for my own reasons if not for any other. If I was playing the market though, I would bet on traditional fantasy, but what do I know? Nothin'


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## Prince of Spires (Oct 14, 2022)

pmmg said:


> I fear however, that writing is moving on to become not just a thing of the past, but a thing of the pasts past. When new creative types come of age, and look to create, what medium do they pick? Well, I think it will be less the big screen as time goes on, and even less the written word. Quick media and video games seem to be the near future to me, and book readers will likely shrink to a smaller percentage of the population (course population grows, so many actual numbers may not change). And of course, I don't even need 1% to be a top seller so...


Numbers very much seem to disagree with this. Numbers of books sold, and money spent on books is still rising. Yes, it's not as high as some other mediums like games or movies. But we're still spending more money on books than ever before in history. 



pmmg said:


> I often feel like the cost/benefit is not here for marketability. It takes a lot of effort to write these things, and the return vs the effort is few and far between. While I do intend to enter the market, I would do so knowing that mostly its for my own purposes, and not likely to have much return.


I disagree here. Books have a relatively high up-front cost. But once you've got the book done, creating a single copy is free. Given that copyright protection lasts for life of the author + 70 years, and that books age a lot better than either video games or movies, there is a lot of room for making money. All you need to figure out is how you can get people to buy your book. With ads it might cost $5-$10 to move a copy. Which sounds like a lot, until you figure out that if you write a series people might just read 5 or 10 of your books, and you suddenly make $10-$20 for each book 1 you sell. 

Yes, it's hard to make a living from a single book. Or to even sell a single book. But with multiple books out there, written intelligently, it's possible. 



pmmg said:


> But...I still feel compelled to write it, for my own reasons if not for any other. If I was playing the market though, I would bet on traditional fantasy, but what do I know? Nothin'


I have a feeling the market is currently exploring what is out there and possible in terms of fantasy. Brandon Sanderson is pushing the epic fantasy boundaries in terms of more traditional fantasy. And there are also tales like The Green Bone Saga, which are completely different. I think fantasy is becoming more diverse and growing beyond its Tolkien roots.


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## psychotick (Oct 18, 2022)

Hi,

I think the future of the genre as always depends on what breaks out next. Because JKR puts out Harry Potter and suddenly every second fantasy out there is magic schools and teenagers. GRRM put out Ice and Fire and grimdark is everywhere. Who knows what the next big thing to capture people's imaginations will be. Sadly I'm just going to keep writing what I like which mostly seems to be heroic fantasy and steampunk - with a healthy dose of space opera!

Cheers, Greg.


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