# Will I ever get published and become a successful author or am I a deluded fool?



## Reaver (Jul 15, 2015)

This is from the tor/forge (Tom Doherty Associates, LLC) FAQ page:

"We have an open submissions policy and consider tens of thousands of projects a year."

Out of those tens of thousands, how many of those submissions get published and their author goes on to be successful?  I submitted a manuscript to Tor once. It was a very long time ago and it took over a year to get a friendly rejection letter.

Ever since then, I've kind of given up on the dream that one day I'd get published and sell a ton of books and could actually make a living as a fiction writer. Sure there's self-publishing but that takes a lot of time and money that I don't have and even then that doesn't guarantee that I'd be successful.

I think that over the years, looking at how many people want to be writers and send in submissions that never make it any further than getting skimmed by some editorial staff member, I've gotten less and less hopeful.

It's made me take a more realistic view on whether or not this will ever happen for me. As much as I like to fantasize and daydream of being another GRRM or (insert famous author here), I've come to realize that maybe I'm a deluded fool.

In my time here at Mythic Scribes, I've seen the work of and gotten to know many incredibly talented writers who deserve to get published but likely never will. 

This makes me sad.


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## Garren Jacobsen (Jul 15, 2015)

Why should it though? Thousands of talented athletes never make it to the big leagues, but many of them continue doing what they love. They play their favorite sport, or any sport, as a recreation. They have fulfilling lives outside of that particular sphere of influence. They love it, so how can you feel bad about that?

Similarly, many talented writers will not get published, that is just the way it works. Yet many will continue doing what they love, writing, while having fulfilling lives outside of being a published author. Publishing isn't the end all be all. For many, including me, it's the journey. The very creative act is was stimulates me and keeps me going. I will never be GRRM or Tolkien, but I am Brian Scott Allen. My identity is more than my writing. To not be published is no shame, to not be famous is no shame. But if someone gives up a hobby they love because it will not make them money, that is a shame. It's a shame because they are losing a part of who they are and for what? Because they didn't beat the odds? Bah, humbug, I say to that notion. Write because you love it, not because you'll make money at it. 

Besides an added benefit to writing is that writing lasts forever. You can do it so long as your mind works. So you'll always have the chance of getting published, unlike the athlete who has about a 5 year span to be a viable professional athlete.


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## SeverinR (Jul 15, 2015)

I have to keep telling myself, what I have told others on here.
Don't write with the expectation of fortune and glory, it will be a lot of rejections and disappointments.
Write for your enjoyment and you win every time.

Officially, I have submitted ss to two competitions. Didn't win either, but I still write. Not with the hope of ever getting published, but because I love to create worlds, place good and evil people in difficult situations, and see where it takes me.
(I am a micro planner, I plan the high points and let the little things happen along the way.)

I will offer one hope from a speaker at a library. He was a literary agent. He said 90% of submissions don't make it out of the mail room. Not because of anything else then the writer didn't follow all the submission rules.  These rules get rid of most of the submissions. Nothing about the story or writing style, just one or two guidelines were missed. One or two errors and the future LOTR's gets dropped in the recycle bin.

So read lots, write, rewrite, edit, re-edit, polish it, then read the submission guidelines, fix the manuscript, reread the guidelines and be sure everything is right. Then before taking that big step of submission, reread it once more(as a reader or publisher), and check it again for the guidelines. Then send it in and start the next story(or like me pick up the next wip, as currently I have 4 books in progress and one simmering to start.) [Someone said, set the book aside for a few months. So I start a new book.]


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## skip.knox (Jul 15, 2015)

Andanotherthing: I don't get to be discouraged until I have written *at least* four novels, have seen them all the way through copyediting, and have submitted them to agents (or self-published) *at least* a dozen times. Plus an intedeterminate number of short stories.

Anything short of that means I haven't really tried yet, so there's no reason to be discouraged. I am anyway, of course, but that's a separate matter!


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## Nimue (Jul 15, 2015)

I think you were going for "deluded fool," unless you've really drunk a lot of water today.

I've no illusions about the likelihood of becoming a successful author--hey, that's just how the world works.  There are millions of amazingly intelligent and creative people out there, writing fantastic stories.  But even if I knew 100% that I'll never be published, even when I'm forty and have a stack of unpublished novels behind me, I'm going to keep writing.  I've been doing it all my life.  Nothing plunges me into another world like writing, nothing scratches the itch of "_this is the story I want to read_" like dreaming up my own stories.

It would be immensely gratifying to have something be published and know that other people have enjoyed what I've written, but if that can't happen during my life, it's not going to stop me from writing for myself--writing for my own entertainment and indulgence, role playing, sharing stories with people around me (like the friend who's hassling me to write more of my WIP so she can find out what happens--she likes it, and that alone is gratifying!)  You can't stake your willingness to write on the odds of becoming rich and famous, because not only are they slimmer than a flea's leg, they are also largely out of your control.  Realism takes some of the pressure off, doesn't it?


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## stephenspower (Jul 15, 2015)

Reaver, I think you have to look at the world through Larry Bird's eyes.

Before the three-point shooting contest at the NBA All-Star game, Bird went into the lockerroom, took one look at the other all-stars and said:

"Which one of you mother****ers is gonna come in second?"

Bird won the contest.

Similarly, tens of thousands may submit somewhere, but only a few dozen will get in--after you.


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## Penpilot (Jul 15, 2015)

In a lot of things in life, you don't have to be the most talented or skilled. You just have to be the most persistent. Others may have talent and skill, but if they give up, that means you step up a rung in the prospect pool ladder. And if you're in the right place at the right time with the right story, who knows what may happen. But if you've given up before hand, the answer is already known.


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## Feo Takahari (Jul 15, 2015)

The long tail gets longer all the time. If you can't get your story published with Tor, you may still be able to get it published somewhere smaller and less prestigious. If you can't get ten thousand people to read your story, maybe one thousand will, or even one hundred! I wouldn't call myself a "successful" author, but I'm an author who's put out stories that people can buy and read if they want to, and that's decent by my standards.


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## Miskatonic (Jul 18, 2015)

If you think you won't then you are guaranteeing that you won't.


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## Caged Maiden (Jul 18, 2015)

I think you have some great ideas...now you just gotta get them on the page and in the hands of some betas, and then start querying.  It's a lot of work, but if you stick with it, you'll at least feel better about this journey.  I'm in the same boat.  I've been editing until my mind turns to much.  I'm not sure I'll ever find the right combinations to make a given book successful, but the thing is, at the end of the day, I like writing and I like what i'm producing.  So...if no one else loves the stories I write, I'll just have to be happy with my own work.  A wise man once said, "F*** the f***ing f***ers."


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## kennyc (Jul 19, 2015)

Reaver said:


> .....
> 
> In my time here at Mythic Scribes, I've seen the work of and gotten to know many incredibly talented writers who deserve to get published but likely never will.
> 
> This makes me sad.





Brian Scott Allen said:


> Why should it though? Thousands of talented athletes never make it to the big leagues,....





SeverinR said:


> I have to keep telling myself, what I have told others on here.
> Don't write with the expectation of fortune and glory, it will be a lot of rejections and disappointments.
> Write for your enjoyment and you win every time.
> 
> ....



Yes, all those things. I must say two things though......the submission process gets damned tiresome (after almost a quarter century of this and the last six months of extensive submission and rejection I'm about ready to give up on submission and focus ONLY on writing).....and thank goodness for the internet and self-publishing.


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## Russ (Jul 19, 2015)

Getting traditionally published is a very tough goal to achieve. I recently heard a very senior editor of a major publisher speaking, and he did not have stats, but said he read about 250 debut manuscripts a year, and bought about 2 of them.  That may not be a great example because he only accepted agented manuscripts from certain agents, thus he really is only buying the best of the best, however it does show the odds are long.  But if that is what you want you have to dig in and go for it. 

And like Bird and all the others go for it *hard*.

Firstly I think you should read the cover article on this site by CM about confidence.  She makes a ton of good points and confidence is very important.

Secondly, the advent of the word processor, like the digital camera, has proliferated the number of people who think they can write publishable work (just like it has proliferated the number of people who think they should be able to sell their photos).  The hard (but perhaps for you fortunate) truth of it, is that most of those people are wrong or don't work hard enough at the craft of writing to make their manuscript remotely worth a traditional publisher buying.  The slush piles have gotten much, much bigger at traditional publishers, but their average quality has not gotten better, many say it has gotten worse.  So if you are dedicated to your craft your average competition is not so hot, the problem is getting noticed.

So if you want to be traditionally published you need to hone the crap out of your craft, get a thick skin, do all that stuff that CM talks about in her article, and then start submitting to agents rather than publishers.  The number of absolutely successful authors who submitted for years without a sale is very large.  You need to be ready for that.

You can also redefine your goals.  I find one of the hardest things to do on this site is give advice to people who I don't know what their goals are.  If I don't know your goals, how can I really give good advice?  If you want to write something to amuse yourself, or are creating a gaming world, my advice is far different than if you want to traditionally publish, or even self-publish with income goals.  If you have a goal you can set a path to it and get to work.

To do that you need to know yourself.  That is a tough one.  

Being a successful traditionally published author is a lofty goal, but I would never discourage anyone from pursuing it.


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## Miskatonic (Jul 20, 2015)

Self-publishing and networking online with social media etc., will get you exposure and some word of mouth if what you are writing is building a fan base. You can sell your books on amazon, just make sure you put time and effort into making your e-books look professional. Even if you sell it for like $1.99, if you can sell a thousand copies or even five hundred, you still are getting your work out there to an audience. With the fantasy genre I think word of mouth can be very powerful. Promote your finished works on different writing websites, fantasy fan sites, etc. You just have to do the online version of legwork.

Also the competition for e-books with other starting writers can be to your advantage, as there is a lot of amateurish garbage out there flooding the market. Good work will stand out.


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## Kobun (Jul 23, 2015)

All I can really say is... Keep going. Write because you love it, but if you want to be published all you can do is keep submitting or work on self publication. As much as I want to kick in the teeth of the guy who said "Do you remember that guy who quit? Neither does anyone else," I think there's a certain truth to it. We'll all inevitably get discouraged, but at the end of it if it's a dream worth having it's a dream worth fighting for.

But yeah. In the mean time keep writing because you can't do anything else but write - because it makes you happy - because it fills that void - what ever your reasons. You started writing for a reason that was presumably not "fame and fortune." Keep writing for that reason.

Something I do to cheer myself up is I look at an author who's work I think is hilariously bad and I just think to myself, "Hey, if they can get publish _I_ can get published.


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## L M Rush (Aug 2, 2015)

What an interesting thread, Personally I've seen two or three people who's (intros) books are real easy to read, and I've only been here a few hours. Now when I go to the library and pull out three random fantasy books, at least two of those are unreadable.

I know for a fact I'm not the strongest writer, but I have a creative mind and some great characters to exploit. I work with somebody who released a 50 shades of greyesque book a couple of years ago, self published, and she now goes to book signings and has 3000+ people who have read (and enjoyed) her book. If I could achieve that, and more, I'd be satisfied. 

PS her book isn't that great, but she put in the work and went for it, and 3000 people think I'm wrong. So, who knows.


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## T.Allen.Smith (Aug 2, 2015)

If your dreams don't scare you, they aren't big enough. 
- Ellen Johnson Sirleaf


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## Chessie (Aug 3, 2015)

Reaver, I think most of us around here feel your pain. I often ask myself if all of this is even worth it. I have been blogging basically to dead space since forever now. I don't have a following of people who like my stories--err--no one knows I exist as a writer. I'll be self-publishing some shorts within the next few months spread out...and I'm terrified. 

What if everyone hates my work? What if I don't make any money? Bla bla...totally stricken by fear.

All I can say is that yes, this is a brutal road filled with uncertainty. But you'll get more out of it if you keep trying. I think that we all get heads swollen with dreams of the way things should be for us because we are writers, but the reality is that we just have to carve out our little niche. You'll get there. If I die someday with only 100 devoted fans, I would consider that a success in this business. Best of luck to you!


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## kennyc (Aug 3, 2015)

....and remember many artists (and writers) died without being discovered and still changed the world -- Vincent van Gogh for example.



what if he'd given up early on and never painted Starry Night or Wheat Field with Crows???


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## Legendary Sidekick (Aug 3, 2015)

I will die clutching every failed manuscript I can get my hands on while dying. It may be my last hope…!


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## BWFoster78 (Aug 4, 2015)

The underlying message sent on this board a lot of the time is that you should write for your own enjoyment because you're not likely to succeed as an author - traditionally published or indie.

I don't know much about the traditional part, but I'm not sure that it's that hard to find some degree of success on the indie side of things.  There seem to be a lot of people making real money out there.  I look at their stuff, and there's nothing they're producing that any of us couldn't produce.

I think that we absolutely can succeed.

Now, I don't think it's necessarily easy.  You have to:

1. Figure out how to write something that people want to read.
2. Actually write something that people want to read.
3. Figure out how to get that something in front of the people who want to read it.
4. Actually get that something in front of the people who want to read it.
5. Repeat.
6. Repeat a lot.
7. Don't give up.

None of those steps are easy, but I think they can be accomplished.


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## Philip Overby (Aug 4, 2015)

I agree with some others that the idea of languishing in obscurity is the biggest fear for many writers. The only way to get out of obscurity is to...um, not be obscure anymore. This means writing, submitting, getting your name out there in as many ways as you can. Each small victory (and defeat) can build towards strengthening your persistence, which to me is the number one attribute to have as a writer. The fear of failure seems to be what holds back a lot of people. Or the fear of someone hating what they've created. I've been lucky in some regards to write fiction that is pretty divisive. That means most of the comments I've gotten are "I love this" or "I hate this." This has helped me as a writer because I realize that my style isn't for everyone, so I should only write with the audience I envision in mind. 

For example, if you submit something to an agent or publisher, they have to think "Who can I sell this to?" If they think "A shitload of people" then you have a better chance. Whereas if you self-publish, it's up to the question you want to ask. "Does this make me happy?" "Can this make me money?" "Will this satisfy my writer itch?" "Will this be a fun side income?" It's up to you to figure out what you want your writing to be. Not to say traditionally published authors don't ask the same questions to themselves, but when dealing with a publisher, they're trying to run a business, so they have to take a risk on the people they sign if they're unknown. 

At the end of the day, it's up to each individual writer where they put their focus. To me, the best advice I've seen is "Put one word after the other." Worry about all that other shit later. Then if what you have doesn't work, "Put one word after the other" again. Wash and repeat. You'll only reach goals by writing more. Writing more makes you better and also increases your chances of reaching your goals. Not writing puts the focus outside out of the writing (not succeeding, will it sell? etc. etc.)


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## Brian G Turner (Aug 4, 2015)

IMO, anyone really serious about being published will read up about the writing process and try to understand all those basic errors that form 99% of manuscript rejections from agents and editors. They will also read up on the publishing industry itself, and understand that most writers do not earn out their advance, nor do most writers have financial security enough to write full time. And for those writers who do get regular publishing contracts, writing becomes a full-time profession, that requires hard work and deadline and stress - so if that's what you want to achieve, be ready to face that.

For anyone who wants to get an idea of what publishing entails, the first few chapters of Carol Blake's _From Pitch to Publishing_ can be invaluable.


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## pmmg (Sep 2, 2022)

A question from the past, but still relevant today.

I dont know which I will be, most likely a deluded fool. Thinking on the number of submissions a publisher might get a year, and how many get selected makes going that way seem like such a shot in the dark as it may be easier to win a lottery than make it out of the muck in that route...though, actually, winning the lottery is harder.

My plan is to start off on the self published path and see how far I can get. I am actually quite eager to start putting my energy into it, and start learning the ropes but....I ran out of $$$, so I am stalling at the gate. Maybe I should win the lottery first. (As one of my friends likes to say, the best way to earn a million dollars is to start off with tens of millions first).

No matter which way it goes, the odds of rising out of the mire are still small. But, I do learn from my mistakes, am teachable, am persistent, can support it with my day job, and I think I write pretty well. And I think my story(ies) are unique enough to stand out. So...I intend to give it a go.

Does this really make me a deluded fool? I think no, cause in the end, I'm gonna say 'I made that' and 'you can find that for purchase here' where as many who dont come as far, wont. Maybe it will be some other generation that strikes the oil with my stuff...you never know. But if its not out there, it will never do anything other than sit.

So for me, the question is still pending--though the odds are still on deluded fool side of the scale.


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## Ban (Sep 2, 2022)

It depends on what one considers success. The goals that I am passionate about are 1. deepening the field of Limburgish literature, 2. writing works that I find personal meaning in, and 3. writing works that I'd proudly pass on to my friends, family, land and the nebulous depths of the future. These goals do not necessitate monetary success or public acclaim, but instead provide purpose to my writing as well as a very feasible road to success. Although my poetry collection (3rd edition now) is by no metric a success in terms of profit or acclaim, I am proud of what I have written and derive meaning from it. I find solace, comfort, pride and excitement in my work. Hel, if the worst comes to pass I even have my epitaph taken care of in "The Lion brought Low," a poem I wrote for my beloved dog.

Now I'm partial to Elvish longevity and would rather live to the ripe old age of 400, but that example is just to say that one can find profound "success" in their writing far beyond the loftiest heights of the global publishing industry. I've had trouble finding my footing in regards to my place in the gargantuan ocean that is literature, and I am more than glad to have found a quiet bay I can feasibly explore. My goals may shift, I may decide to reclaim an old one or invent one anew, but for now I already consider myself a success, if only to myself.


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## kennyc (Sep 2, 2022)

Ban said:


> It depends on what one considers success. The goals that I am passionate about are 1. deepening the field of Limburgish literature, 2. writing works that I find personal meaning in, and 3. writing works that I'd proudly pass on to my friends, family, land and the nebulous depths of the future. These goals do not necessitate monetary success or public acclaim, but instead provide purpose to my writing as well as a very feasible road to success. Although my poetry collection (3rd edition now) is by no metric a success in terms of profit or acclaim, I am proud of what I have written and derive meaning from it. I find solace, comfort, pride and excitement in my work. Hel, if the worst comes to pass I even have my epitaph taken care of "The Lion brought Low," a poem I wrote for my beloved dog.
> 
> Now I'm partial to Elvish longevity and would rather live to the ripe old age of 400, but that example is just to say that one can find profound "success" in their writing far beyond the loftiest heights of the global publishing industry. I've had trouble finding my footing in regards to my place in the gargantuan ocean that is literature, and I am more than glad to have found a quiet bay I can feasibly explore. My goals may shift, I may decide to reclaim another or invent one anew, but for now I already consider myself a success, if only to myself.


Agree completely! My self-published books on Amazon are not money-makers but I'm proud of every one of them!


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## skip.knox (Sep 3, 2022)

A deluded fool? I should like to meet the fool who is undeluded, but that is perhaps a different thread.

pmmg said you've run out of money. But it can cost very close to zero to self-publish. I may well mean having to settle for a stock pre-made cover, do all the editing yourself, and run only the KDP Select promos, but it can be done. That's how I started and look where I am now!  No, no, not there, further to the left. Back. Back further. Ah, yes, there I am.

But it can be done. Don't let mere money be a barrier.


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## pmmg (Sep 3, 2022)

skip.knox said:


> @pmmg said you've run out of money. But it can cost very close to zero to self-publish. I may well mean having to settle for a stock pre-made cover, do all the editing yourself, and run only the KDP Select promos, but it can be done. That's how I started and look where I am now! No, no, not there, further to the left. Back. Back further. Ah, yes, there I am.



Yes, I can. But I wont. I want to put my best foot forward. I plan to make it as professional as I can. Editor and cover art, and some extras. It will take some time and yes...some money. I'm gonna to give it an effort on the first and use that to gauge what is needed for the second. Right now, I am just plowing ahead in book 3. So far 38K words. I am very pleased with the pace I have set. I fear this one may be a little too hard to follow but, I've not edited it at all yet. Since I am shooting for 100K (or more), that would make it 38% finished.

Anyway, when I get going, I am thinking of putting up a place to chronicle the costs and efforts.

I should have the ability soon. Pending no car repairs, I am almost out of the woods.

What I want is a hard back I can hold in my hand. Not just a digital download. And I am already thinking of how to make an audio book.


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## skip.knox (Sep 4, 2022)

>Pending no car repairs
Oof, jinx! Cars have a built-in knowledge of how much money I have in the bank.

Yes, cover art will cost. And editors. But you know all that. It's great to hear you're on the third book. Your experience may vary, but I found I made a *ton* of mistakes on publishing the first book and was glad that it was one I deliberately did not intend to be my first big one. In fact, it's wound up being a giveaway for subscribing to my newsletter. It's a decent story, but I stumbled all over the place in the production process. And it can take time (which means money) to find the right editor, right artist, etc.

Audio book can be terribly expensive, or you can narrate it yourself. I'm headed for the latter option, simply because I can't justify the costs. But it's again one of the great things about the self-publishing process--you can make your own choices about how much is hired and how much is self.


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## pmmg (Sep 4, 2022)

I didnt last a day. Wife says her car needs to go into the shop. Joy.


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## Devor (Sep 4, 2022)

I don't want to comment on this thread.  I really don't.

............. . . . . . . . damnit.

Okay, look.  I'm going to post a graph people have probably seen before.








This, of course, is the Dunning-Kruger effect.  It's a measure of how confident you feel and its connection to how competent you are.  You learn a little, feel like you understand everything, but in fact know very little about it.

So the question is:  Am I deluded?  Or, I'll rephrase the question a bit:  _*How can I tell if I'm deluded?*_

Well, the answer is in the graph.  You see, there are _*two*_* peaks of confidence*, and in between them, _two_ points at you which ask this question - one on the descent from arrogance, and one on the rise towards competence.  In between them is despair.  If you're asking about whether you're deluded, the better way to understand the question is, which side of the graph are you on?  Descent or rise?  And do you think you keep at it long enough to make it through the rest of the graph?

But, 'cause life is messy, and popularity is hard, there's an extra trick to it.  And it sucks, really, I'm sorry.  But you're running through this graph multiple times at the same time, each at a different speed, and you might not even know it.  In fact, you could be racing towards competence in one area but have no idea that you're trapped at the peak of Mount Stupid in another, and then fail because of that.

You see, being a successful author is *a bundle of many different skills*.  Conceptualizing, plotting, worldbuilding, character development, research, technical writing, descriptive writing, emotional writing, life commentary, sales and marketing and editing and so on.  Hell, just seeing the path clearly is a skill.  I can't tell you how many people seem to think it's enough to just take maybe plotting, technical writing, and marketing to succeed, then claim the rest is luck.  It's not.  The book will be done, flow well, be put out on the market, feel good.  But the concept will be cliche, the writing flat, the themes shallow, and book reviewers will ignore it because it wasn't sold to them.

That's the delusion: Being confident because you've beat the Valley of Despair in one set of skills while you stand on the Peak of Mount Stupid in another.  You think you're over the hurdle, but you haven't built up enough of your other writing skills to make it.


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## Prince of Spires (Sep 5, 2022)

It's a tough climb up the mountain, and everyone's climb is different. But I take heart from Brandon Sanderson. He's talked about the chance of being a succesful author multiple times. He teaches writing at BYU, and he's mentioned multiple times that each year on average about 1 student out of his small class of 15 becomes a writing professional (either author or editor). 1 out of 15 is pretty decent odds I'd say. The main thing is to stick with it. Keep writing, keep improving, and eventually you'll get there.

There's indeed some money involved self-publishing, though you can do it on a shoe-string. Another option is to publish your stories as episodicals first (on places like Kindle Vela, but there are a lot more places). They have slightly lower needs for editing I think.

In the end, the main reason to start publishing is to see your stories out in the world. As long as that's what you're aiming for then you'll be a success at some point.


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## cerealspiller (Sep 8, 2022)

So much good info in this thread! If the main concern is getting your work noticed, then take a dive into self publishing and e-books. Spend some money on an artist-for-hire to draw up some cover art and put it out there. I've seen plenty of people self-publish e-books on Amazon and they did quite well. I don't believe most writers do it for the money, but a little extra pocket change doesn't hurt.


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## Prince of Spires (Sep 9, 2022)

I just recently came across some figures which put getting published by a big 5 publisher into a very different light. This figures were stated by the CEO of one of the big 5 publishers, under oath during a trial. So we can assume they're correct. 

Apparently, of the 58,000 trade titles published per year, fully half of those titles “sell fewer than one dozen books.” (Not a typo, that’s one dozen.) More broadly, 90 percent of titles sell fewer than 2,000 units.

Those are some very sobering statistics.


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## Devor (Sep 9, 2022)

Prince of Spires said:


> I just recently came across some figures which put getting published by a big 5 publisher into a very different light. This figures were stated by the CEO of one of the big 5 publishers, under oath during a trial. So we can assume they're correct.
> 
> Apparently, of the 58,000 trade titles published per year, fully half of those titles “sell fewer than one dozen books.” (Not a typo, that’s one dozen.) More broadly, 90 percent of titles sell fewer than 2,000 units.
> 
> Those are some very sobering statistics.



Yeah, fair.  I'm curious to know if those authors get an advance, and if that advance has to be repaid.  Getting $5,000 for 12 books is at least something.  Having to return it because you only sold 12 would suck.

What's kind of more crappy, though, are people who then buy 5,000 copies of their own book just to move the needle.  You see that sometimes with non-fiction.  People want the book as a credential for how they're an expert, so they buy their own copies just to make it to the top of a list, and then give them away to clients, which is where they make their money back.


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## pmmg (Sep 9, 2022)

Devor said:


> Yeah, fair. I'm curious to know if those authors get an advance, and if that advance has to be repaid. Getting $5,000 for 12 books is at least something. Having to return it because you only sold 12 would suck.



I am too. I suspect it just the cost of doing business. They give away 50 advances in the hopes that one hit it big.


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## Mad Swede (Sep 10, 2022)

Prince of Spires said:


> I just recently came across some figures which put getting published by a big 5 publisher into a very different light. This figures were stated by the CEO of one of the big 5 publishers, under oath during a trial. So we can assume they're correct.
> 
> Apparently, of the 58,000 trade titles published per year, fully half of those titles “sell fewer than one dozen books.” (Not a typo, that’s one dozen.) More broadly, 90 percent of titles sell fewer than 2,000 units.
> 
> Those are some very sobering statistics.


That is, like so many of the statistics you have posted about traditional publishing, grossly misleading.  Below is a link to an article explaining the figures:

No, Most Books Don't Sell Only a Dozen Copies

And here is what Kristen Mclean from BookScan (whose book sales statistics that claim was based on) had to say on the subject:

_Hey y'all, it's Kristen McLean, lead industry analyst from NPD BookScan. I thought I would chime in with some numbers here, since that statistic from the DOJ is super-misleading, and I'm not sure where it originally came from, since we did not provide it directly. 

It is possible it came from our data, and was provided by one of the publisher parties, but based on the 58,000 figure, it's not obvious what exactly it includes in terms of "publisher frontlist". 58,000 titles is way too small a number for "all frontlist books published in a year by every publisher"--that's more like 487,000 frontlist titles--so it's clear it's a slice but I'm not sure HOW it was sliced.

NPD BookScan (BookScan is owned by The NPD Group, not Nielsen, BTW), collects data on print book sales from 16,000 retail locations, including Amazon print book sales. Included in those numbers are any print book sales from self-publishing platforms where the author has opted for extended distribution and a print book was sold by Amazon or another retailer. So that 487K "new book" figure is all frontlist books in our data showing at least 1 unit sale over the last 52 weeks coming from publishers of all sizes, including individuals.

Lots of press outlets have been calling about it today, so I did a little digging to see if I could reverse-engineer the citation, and am happy to share our numbers here for clarity.

Because this is clearly a slice, and most likely provided by one of the parties to the suit, I decided to limit my data to the frontlist sales for the top 10 publishers by unit volume in the U.S. Trade market. My ISBN list is a little smaller than the one quoted in the DOJ, but the principals will be the same. 

The data below includes frontlist titles from Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Scholastic, Disney, Macmillan, Abrams, Sourcebooks, and John Wiley. The figures below only include books published by these publishers themselves, not pubishers they distribute.

Here is what I found. Collectively, 45,571 unique ISBNs appear for these publishers in our frontlist sales data for the last 52 weeks (thru week ending 8-24-2022).

In this dataset:

>>>0.4% or 163 books sold 100,000 copies or more

>>>0.7% or 320 books sold between 50,000-99,999 copies

>>>2.2% or 1,015 books sold between 20,000-49,999 copies

>>>3.4% or 1,572 books sold between 10,000-19,999 copies

>>>5.5% or 2,518 books sold between 5,000-9,999 copies

>>>21.6% or 9,863 books sold between 1,000-4,999 copies

>>>51.4% or 23,419 sold between 12-999 copies

>>>14.7% or 6,701 books sold under 12 copies

So, only about 15% of all of those publisher-produced frontlist books sold less than 12 copies. That's not nothing, but nowhere as janky as what has been reported.

BUT, I think the real story is that roughly 66% of those books from the top 10 publishers sold less than 1,000 copies over 52 weeks. (Those last two points combined)

And less than 2% sold more than 50,000 copies. (The top two points)

Now data is a funny thing. It can be sliced and diced to create different types of views. For instance we could run the same analysis on ALL of those 487K new books published in the last 52 weeks, which includes many small press and independetly published titles, and we would find that about 98% of them sold less that 5,000 copies in the "trade bookstore market" that NPD BookScan covers. (I know this IS a true statistic because that data was produced by us for The New York Times.)

But that data does not include direct sales from publishers. It does not include sales by authors at events, or through their websites. It does not include eBook sales which we track in a separate tool, and it doesn't include any of the amazing reading going on through platforms like Substack, Wattpad, Webtoons, Kindle Direct, or library lending platforms like OverDrive or Hoopla. 

BUT, it does represent the general reality of the ECONOMICS of the publishing market. In general, most of the revenue that keeps publishers in business comes from the very narrow band of publishing successes in the top 8-10% of new books, along with the 70% of overall sales that come from BACKLIST books in the current market. (Backlist books have gained about 4% in share from frontlist books since the pandemic began, but that is a whole other story.)

The long and short of it is publishing is very much a gambler's game, and I think that has been clear from the testimony in the DOJ case. It is true that most people in publishing up to and including the CEOs cannot tell you for sure what books are going to make their year. The big advantage that publisher consolidation has brought to the top of the market is deeper pockets and more resources to roll those dice. More money to get a hot project. More money to influence outcomes through marketing, more access to sales and distribution mechanisms, and easier access to the gatekeepers who decide what books make it onto retailers' shelves. And better ability to distribute risk across a bigger list of gambles.

It is largely a numbers game and I'm not just saying that because I'm a numbers gal. It's a tough business. 

Hope this is helpful.

If anyone has questions, they are welcome to reach out to me directly at [email protected]._


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## Mad Swede (Sep 10, 2022)

Devor said:


> Yeah, fair.  I'm curious to know if those authors get an advance, and if that advance has to be repaid.  Getting $5,000 for 12 books is at least something.  Having to return it because you only sold 12 would suck.
> 
> What's kind of more crappy, though, are people who then buy 5,000 copies of their own book just to move the needle.  You see that sometimes with non-fiction.  People want the book as a credential for how they're an expert, so they buy their own copies just to make it to the top of a list, and then give them away to clients, which is where they make their money back.


In answer to your question, if you get an advance as an author you don't have to repay it if the book is published. You keep it even if the book doesn't sell well. BUT, you don't earn any royalties until the book has sold so many copies that the royalties you would have got for those sales equal the advance. The point at which your book sells enough copies for the publisher to start paying royalties is known in the trade as "earning out". This is the big gamble for publishers, that the books they publish will earn enough to recover the costs of production and the advance they paid. (Self-published authors take a smiliar gamble, the difference being that the authors concerned pay all the production costs up front and then hope to recover those costs and make a profit on the subsequent book sales.)

And in answer to the unspoken question I know some of you have, yes all except my most recent book have earned out. My most recent book hasn't earned out yet because it hasn't been out that long. Please note however that I don't make that much money from the advances and royalties, certainly not enough to live on. Be warned that unless you are a super best-selling author it can take some time for your book to earn out - but at least you got an advance...


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## Prince of Spires (Sep 12, 2022)

Mad Swede said:


> That is, like so many of the statistics you have posted about traditional publishing, grossly misleading. Below is a link to an article explaining the figures:


I just give the numbers as I come across them, I don't make them up. I'm happy to be corrected. Though your numbers don't change the fact that it's a very sobering number. Even 14.7% of books selling fewer than 12 copies is a lot. I would think that an author could sell that many to friends and family. And to me 87% selling fewer than 5000 copies is still a shocking number.

And by no means is indie publishing any easier. I'd think that those figures are just as terrible, if not worse for indie authors. It's very easy to drop a book on amazon and watch it sink without any sales. The only advantage an indie author has is that since you earn more per book (70% vs 10% in royalties) it's easier to run ads. The downside is that as an indie author you will probably pay $1500-$2000 just to get your book in a state where you can actually sell it.

My main point was that authoring is a tough business. And even getting a publishing deal from a dream publisher would not guarantee succes as an author.


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## Devor (Sep 12, 2022)

Prince of Spires said:


> The only advantage an indie author has is that since you earn more per book (70% vs 10% in royalties) it's easier to run ads.



This is the first I've seen somebody suggest this.... and it should be true.    Since your royalties are higher with self-publishing, the beak-even point on Facebook or Amazon ads is a lot fewer sales.  To my knowledge people still struggle to break even on ad sales, but it wouldn't even make sense to try at the lower royalty rate from a publisher.

I know I'm just repeating you, but it's a new point in a long series of discussions for me, so I thought it was worth a little emphasis.


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## skip.knox (Sep 12, 2022)

That advantage has some modulation to it. If I'm with a traditional publisher, then in my ad I get to say I've been published by Orbit or Tor. That's going to make that ad more effective than a similar one from a self-pub. In addition, the publisher themselves are doing at least a modicum of promotion. If nothing else, my book appears on their company site. So there are more points of marketing contact than I have if I'm self-pubbed.

The ads are subject to so many variables that it's impossible to say what sort of percentage differential would be at play. I still think there's probably a bit of an advantage, but I doubt it could be reliably measured. But it's another a factor, as Devor says.


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## Devor (Sep 12, 2022)

skip.knox said:


> That advantage has some modulation to it. If I'm with a traditional publisher, then in my ad I get to say I've been published by Orbit or Tor. That's going to make that ad more effective than a similar one from a self-pub. In addition, the publisher themselves are doing at least a modicum of promotion. If nothing else, my book appears on their company site. So there are more points of marketing contact than I have if I'm self-pubbed.



So any of the traditional big publishers can be expected to do two things to promote a book:  Send it to a list of reviewers, and spend 30 seconds pitching it to the buyers at bookstores.  They will give a handful of top sellers a promotional tour.  The only way they spend on ads is if your book ends up in like Target or Walmart, which is mostly top selling romance and thrillers.


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## Mad Swede (Sep 12, 2022)

Devor said:


> This is the first I've seen somebody suggest this.... and it should be true.    Since your royalties are higher with self-publishing, the beak-even point on Facebook or Amazon ads is a lot fewer sales.


Is it? Or does that depend on how much you have to discount the book to get sales moving? 

I understand from my publishers that most newbie authors in the US (please note, the US) who get a "traditional" publishing deal receive an advance of $5000. And the publisher pays all the production costs (editing, formatting, proof reading, cover, marketing etc). As compared to an indie author paying $1500-$2000 just to get the book into shape before publishing it and then trying to market it using ads. This is before the indie author starts to work out the cost of the time they spent doing all that work - and that time is not negligable if you hope to make a living from your writing.

I suspect that in reality when all the true costs are taken into account the break-even point on the number of sales for an indie author is similar to the number of sales needed for a traditionally published author to earn out.


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## Devor (Sep 12, 2022)

Mad Swede said:


> Is it? Or does that depend on how much you have to discount the book to get sales moving?



As I understand it, people who have put $1-1.5k into publishing and editing a quality book find that they get the more sales with a more traditional higher price point.

People do struggle, cut the price by a lot, and then run to ads though.  That is definitely a thing.

As I mentioned, a publisher sends your book to reviewers.  An indie author has to do that themselves.  But a lot of people skip that part, thinking they can jump straight to ads, which is a big mistake.


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## Mad Swede (Sep 12, 2022)

Prince of Spires said:


> I just give the numbers as I come across them, I don't make them up.



It worries me that so many people don't bother to check the "facts" they read on the internet before spreading them even further. And it doesn't take much effort to check the numbers you quoted - certainly less effort than trying to work out how effective your Amazon ads are.



> Though your numbers don't change the fact that it's a very sobering number. Even 14.7% of books selling fewer than 12 copies is a lot. I would think that an author could sell that many to friends and family. And to me 87% selling fewer than 5000 copies is still a shocking number.



As Kristen McClean makes clear, that is the number of sales over a 12 month period. And it isn't all sales, nor does it tell you how many copies any book sells over a period of several years. So I'd be vary wary of drawing too many conclusions from those figures. I certainly wouldn't use them to claim or imply that self-publishing is the best option.



> My main point was that authoring is a tough business. And even getting a publishing deal from a dream publisher would not guarantee succes as an author.



No, a traditional publishing deal does not guarantee success. It never has.


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## Mad Swede (Sep 12, 2022)

Devor said:


> So any of the traditional big publishers can be expected to do two things to promote a book:  Send it to a list of reviewers, and spend 30 seconds pitching it to the buyers at bookstores.  They will give a handful of top sellers a promotional tour.  The only way they spend on ads is if your book ends up in like Target or Walmart, which is mostly top selling romance and thrillers.


They do a bit more than that with the advertising. One of the advantages they have is that their marketing operation is rather more sophisticated than that produced by the average indie author. It starts with the reviewers and it goes from there. There might be an ad in the same periodical as the review, especially if the review is positive. And the book gets a lot more than a 30 second sales pitch at the book store - my publishers target those book stores which they know sell lots of books similar to mine. They work out which on-line sites sell most books like mine and start targeting those sites too. There's no way I could ever do that on my own - so I've won on my publishing deal.


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## Prince of Spires (Sep 13, 2022)

There's a lot to go into here, and indeed there's more components than just money.

It helps to get 4 times the money. I think standard ebooks royalties are 25% of net, which is 25% of the 70% the publisher gets. On the other hand, trad books tend to be more expensive, which somewhat compensates for that. And trad books might sell better or maybe do better with ads. No idea, I don't have any data on that. 

One interesting thing with both the advance and the cost of putting out an indie book, is that those are sunk costs / incomes. They happen once and have no relation to the selling of the book. Once you've made them (or received them), that's it, they don't factor into the ongoing cost of the book. All that matters is what does an ad cost and what does it earn you. If the ad costs more than it earns you, then you will run out of money eventually, no matter the size of your advance. If it's the other way around, then it doesn't matter how much you spent on publishing the book, it will make you money in the long run, because each sale is making you money. Therefore you can keep selling books. So making more per book or per sale is the important part when running ads.

I actually think that there are two other big factors that impact ads performance for the author which are often forgotten. The first is real-time data, the second the power of series. 

As for real time data, publishers probably have this, but authors don't. And you really need this to make ads work, or any kind of marketing for that matter. If you want to know if your TikTok videos have an effect, you need to see on a day to day basis how your sales go. And then getting quarterly data from the publisher doesn't help.

As for the power of series. As an indie author you can keep publishing novels that don't do well. If the first two books of a series don't do well the publisher probably won't publish the third. As an indie author you can do this (though it means you are deeper in the red with each book put out). And the longer your series, the easier ads are. Simply put, if you have a trilogy, with 50%, 100% readthrough (from 1-2 and 2-3), then you have a lot more money to play with for ads as opposed to when you only have 2 books and the third never gets published.

I don't believe all trad-books get a decent marketing budget. Definitely not the 0-12 books total category, but I doubt the 12-1000 category is getting much either. If as a professional you're marketing a book with any kind of money and you're selling fewer than 12 copies in a year you should be fired from your job. My worst ad (and I'm terrible at ads and make it up as I go along without any marketing experience), gave me a sale for every $9 spend (30ct per click, 30 clicks per sale). Which means that a $1.000 budget gets you over 100 sales. Any professional should be able to do better than that, and that's counting without getting regular sales. Once you go above the 1.000 sales figure, then I'm sure there will be some money for marketing. But that means that anything between 15% and 65% of trad books have little to no marketing budget.

Backlists are interesting (where backlist = published more than a year ago). Publishers are discovering there is money in them. However, I doubt any novels selling 12 novels or less are seeing any sales after the initial launch. There are just too many books published for people to randomly stumble across a book that isn't selling anything. The same is likely true in the selling 12 - 1.000 novels in the first year category. Almost all books sell most during launch, so with 1.000 novels it's most likely not 80 per month, but rather 300 in the first month, 200 in the second, and so on until it's selling peanuts in month 12 and after. There's no reason for a publisher to push those works. The costs have already been made, it's shown it's hard to sell, they're better off spending money on the next new book, instead of trying to revive an old one. It's different for popular authors, who sell a lot. Then, when you put out a new book, you get plenty of readers, some of which will go to the old books.

In regards the cost of my time, that's free. Simply put, for me writing and publishing is a hobby. That time doesn't have to earn me anything. I have a day job for that. I pay $10 to go climbing once a week (for about 2 hours), which I consider a fair amount for a hobby. No one worries that those 2 hours are actually costing me $50 because I need to factor in two hours of wages since I could be earning money. What's more, using that as a baseline then means that any hour I spend on a hobby is worth $5 to me. So an hour spend fiddling with ads, earns me $5. It's also time which is otherwise non-productive. If I don't spend that hour writing / marketing, then I would spend it watching netflix or playing a computer game. It's time I can't earn any other money in, therefore, there's no cost attached to it. It would change if I was a fulltime author, but I'm not, so it's a free hour.


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