Some numbers on the self publishing questions.

[Kevin O. McLaughlin]

It's always useful to have numbers, so here's a few. What follows is all from either my personal research into the field, or from the research of others with whom I have had personal contact, and can vouch for. Some of this is estimates - I try to point those out when they are.


- A much touted number is that the average self published book "sells only x copies", with x usually being about 50. This is based on a 2007 press release from Bowker, which was specifically speaking about the "self publishing service" companies (iUniverse, AuthorHouse, etc.) which basically took writers' money and then sold the books only on their own store, for higher costs than major publishers. It is outdated - grossly so. The facts? NO ONE, except for maybe some Amazon execs, have any clue what numbers of copies the average self pub/indie book sells, because they don't release that information to anyone but the authors. No central body tracks this data.

- The Association of American Publishers produces the data quoted by groups like Publishers Weekly. As of Dec 2010, their data had ebooks at about 8% of the market. After a brief blip to 25-26% in Jan/Feb (post holiday sales as new Kindles/Nooks were filled), the percent dropped to 17% by May, and is estimated by most analysts to be about 20% today. However, that number excludes all small presses and indie books, which make up a substantial percentage of the ebook market; the actual number is probably a bit higher for revenue, and close to 30% for unit sales.

- With the exception of the two weeks or so of summer sales, the Amazon top 100 ebook list has been consistently 35% or more indie published books since March 2011. This is a change from December 2010, when the first self published book hit that list. Amazon is the most critical venue, accounting for 65% or more of all US ebook sales.

- My own surveys of the top 200 lists in five genres have been enlightening, with steady growth of indie books over the last six months. As of two weeks ago, self published ebooks represented 50-75% of the top 200 bestselling books in romance, science fiction, fantasy, thrillers, and horror.

- A July survey of the top 1000 ebooks on Amazon showed over 33% were self published.

- The top 6000 or so ebooks make in excess of 1000 sales per month. My guess, based on the above data, is that over 2000 of them are self published.

- Despite the very strong growth of indie publishing, it still represents a minority of ebooks uploaded. Regular trade publishers are expected by the AAP to produce about 350,000 new books this year; most of which will be uploaded in ebook form as well as print. However, only 25k-45k new ebooks have been uploaded to Amazon each month so far this year, meaning that the total new ebooks hitting the major market will probably be less than 400k this year. I'm unsure what percent of this are indie books, but my guess is roughly a quarter. If true, then that makes the indie dominance of genre fiction all the more important.

- Speaking with a writer who has had a number of books published through Ace recently, and who just self published for the first time, she pointed out that she earns almost as much (35 cents) from each 99 cent ebook sold on Amazon as she does for each $7.99 paperback she sells (40 cents, after agent fees).

- She also makes only $1.19 on each $7.99 ebook she sells through the publisher. But will make $2.09 on each $2.99 book she sells herself; and $5.59 if she opted to go for a $7.99 self published ebook price.

- There is a general upward trend in indie ebook prices. There are still plenty at 99 cents - mostly newer writers breaking in. However, many of those who have found audiences are moving their books to $4.99, and still retaining multiple top-5000 ranking positions at those prices. The fears about all books dropping to the lowest possible price seem extremely unfounded.

- After agent commissions, an NYC published writer makes only 14.9% of the cover price on ebooks. An indie writer makes about 70%. The publisher needs to help the writer sell about 4.7 times as many books to break even, given equal prices. This is a challenging number for publishers to reach.

- My own estimate, supported by current and past patterns of growth, is that across all fiction sold in the US, ebooks will cross the point of being over 50% of unit sales in the first few months of 2012, and will continue to expand from there. Ebooks are the market which matters most for all fiction books (and much nonfiction), moving forward.

 

[MichaelSullivan]

It's always useful to have numbers, so here's a few. What follows is all from either my personal research into the field, or from the research of others with whom I have had personal contact, and can vouch for. Some of this is estimates - I try to point those out when they are.


- A much touted number is that the average self published book "sells only x copies", with x usually being about 50. This is based on a 2007 press release from Bowker, which was specifically speaking about the "self publishing service" companies (iUniverse, AuthorHouse, etc.) which basically took writers' money and then sold the books only on their own store, for higher costs than major publishers. It is outdated - grossly so. The facts? NO ONE, except for maybe some Amazon execs, have any clue what numbers of copies the average self pub/indie book sells, because they don't release that information to anyone but the authors. No central body tracks this data.

- The Association of American Publishers produces the data quoted by groups like Publishers Weekly. As of Dec 2010, their data had ebooks at about 8% of the market. After a brief blip to 25-26% in Jan/Feb (post holiday sales as new Kindles/Nooks were filled), the percent dropped to 17% by May, and is estimated by most analysts to be about 20% today. However, that number excludes all small presses and indie books, which make up a substantial percentage of the ebook market; the actual number is probably a bit higher for revenue, and close to 30% for unit sales.

- With the exception of the two weeks or so of summer sales, the Amazon top 100 ebook list has been consistently 35% or more indie published books since March 2011. This is a change from December 2010, when the first self published book hit that list. Amazon is the most critical venue, accounting for 65% or more of all US ebook sales.

- My own surveys of the top 200 lists in five genres have been enlightening, with steady growth of indie books over the last six months. As of two weeks ago, self published ebooks represented 50-75% of the top 200 bestselling books in romance, science fiction, fantasy, thrillers, and horror.

- A July survey of the top 1000 ebooks on Amazon showed over 33% were self published.

- The top 6000 or so ebooks make in excess of 1000 sales per month. My guess, based on the above data, is that over 2000 of them are self published.

- Despite the very strong growth of indie publishing, it still represents a minority of ebooks uploaded. Regular trade publishers are expected by the AAP to produce about 350,000 new books this year; most of which will be uploaded in ebook form as well as print. However, only 25k-45k new ebooks have been uploaded to Amazon each month so far this year, meaning that the total new ebooks hitting the major market will probably be less than 400k this year. I'm unsure what percent of this are indie books, but my guess is roughly a quarter. If true, then that makes the indie dominance of genre fiction all the more important.

- Speaking with a writer who has had a number of books published through Ace recently, and who just self published for the first time, she pointed out that she earns almost as much (35 cents) from each 99 cent ebook sold on Amazon as she does for each $7.99 paperback she sells (40 cents, after agent fees).

- She also makes only $1.19 on each $7.99 ebook she sells through the publisher. But will make $2.09 on each $2.99 book she sells herself; and $5.59 if she opted to go for a $7.99 self published ebook price.

- There is a general upward trend in indie ebook prices. There are still plenty at 99 cents - mostly newer writers breaking in. However, many of those who have found audiences are moving their books to $4.99, and still retaining multiple top-5000 ranking positions at those prices. The fears about all books dropping to the lowest possible price seem extremely unfounded.

- After agent commissions, an NYC published writer makes only 14.9% of the cover price on ebooks. An indie writer makes about 70%. The publisher needs to help the writer sell about 4.7 times as many books to break even, given equal prices. This is a challenging number for publishers to reach.

- My own estimate, supported by current and past patterns of growth, is that across all fiction sold in the US, ebooks will cross the point of being over 50% of unit sales in the first few months of 2012, and will continue to expand from there. Ebooks are the market which matters most for all fiction books (and much nonfiction), moving forward.

That data is all right on the money. I personally have sold more than 10,000 ebooks per month for 4 seperate months (across 5 titles) and I know others that have sold even more than that. These were books mostly priced at $4.95 (although one was priced at $6.95 - but it was the fifth in a popular series). I know others that sell many more than that, but at lower prices such as $0.99 or $2.99.

 

[Legendary Sidekick]

Michael,
I hope to pick your brain one of these days about marketing e-books. I'm glad to see your pricing info! When I looked into ebooks in 2008, it seemed like wall the new authors were charging $0.99 or $9.99.

Personally, I hope you'll be asked to do a "guest author interview" on the main page... people like me can learn a lot from you!

 

[Benjamin Clayborne]

To me, right now it feels like there's a lot of mystery in self e-publishing, in terms of what the market actually looks like. This is the scariest part of the whole thing, for me; the total uncertainty about what might happen when I am actually ready to publish my book

 

[Dreamhand]

First, thank you Kevin and Michael for what I consider to be a very hopeful - even inspiring - view of the publishing arena. That hope is eloquently qualified by Benjamin's observation that most of us have no clue how best to proceed.

I recently got a new job that required a one-hour commute (one-way... oy) and, in order to preserve my sanity, I started listening to podcasts. I was lucky and avoided much of the drek that's out there and, in the process, discovered something marvelous... authors were using podcasts of their books as a way to attract an audience and facilitate the sale and promotion of their books.

That led to listening to podcasts about writing where I learned what Kevin and Michael affirmed: the indie and self-publication model is not only viable, but conceivably MORE profitable for writers. It's NOT the route to take if you want to be one of those ivory tower writers who just write and collect their checks. There's nothing wrong with that, but self-publication is more than a full-time proposition.

I've gathered some excellent insights and advice from the Dead Robots Society (http://www.http://deadrobotssociety.com/) and specifically episodes 193 and 195 where they interviewed Robin Sullivan (Write to Publish) of Ridan Publishing (Welcome to Ridan Publishing). Her suggestions on preparations to market and release a book were extremely clear and seemed utterly relevant to the new order of publication that has opened up to us all.

I agree with Benjamin... it's a daunting prospect. But the fact that the option is open to us sends me running to Google everyday looking up "free e-book conversion software" or "publish on-demand" and all the other intriguing opportunities for the transformation of a "writer" into an "author."

 

[MichaelSullivan]

Michael,
I hope to pick your brain one of these days about marketing e-books. I'm glad to see your pricing info! When I looked into ebooks in 2008, it seemed like wall the new authors were charging $0.99 or $9.99.

Personally, I hope you'll be asked to do a "guest author interview" on the main page... people like me can learn a lot from you!

Hey,
Feel free to pick away at my brain anytime you wish. I'll gladly do some guest posts...my wife is the real expert. I highly recommend her blog she has a lot of great content there.

 

[MichaelSullivan]

To me, right now it feels like there's a lot of mystery in self e-publishing, in terms of what the market actually looks like. This is the scariest part of the whole thing, for me; the total uncertainty about what might happen when I am actually ready to publish my book

I would say the fear, uncertainty and doubt extends far beyond self publishing and its just as "up in the air" in all trade publishing. Best advice is don't wait for it to settle as it probably won't. Pick a direction, run with it, but be prepared to adjust as needed. It will be the nimble that do well - IMHO.

 

[MichaelSullivan]

First, thank you Kevin and Michael for what I consider to be a very hopeful - even inspiring - view of the publishing arena. That hope is eloquently qualified by Benjamin's observation that most of us have no clue how best to proceed.

I recently got a new job that required a one-hour commute (one-way... oy) and, in order to preserve my sanity, I started listening to podcasts. I was lucky and avoided much of the drek that's out there and, in the process, discovered something marvelous... authors were using podcasts of their books as a way to attract an audience and facilitate the sale and promotion of their books.

That led to listening to podcasts about writing where I learned what Kevin and Michael affirmed: the indie and self-publication model is not only viable, but conceivably MORE profitable for writers. It's NOT the route to take if you want to be one of those ivory tower writers who just write and collect their checks. There's nothing wrong with that, but self-publication is more than a full-time proposition.

I've gathered some excellent insights and advice from the Dead Robots Society (http://www.http://deadrobotssociety.com/) and specifically episodes 193 and 195 where they interviewed Robin Sullivan (Write to Publish) of Ridan Publishing (Welcome to Ridan Publishing). Her suggestions on preparations to market and release a book were extremely clear and seemed utterly relevant to the new order of publication that has opened up to us all.

I agree with Benjamin... it's a daunting prospect. But the fact that the option is open to us sends me running to Google everyday looking up "free e-book conversion software" or "publish on-demand" and all the other intriguing opportunities for the transformation of a "writer" into an "author."

I'm glad you've enjoyed my wive's podcasts on DRS. She's a pretty sharp cookie. If you are enjoying podcasts I highly recommend Nathan lowell's works. You can't go wrong with any of his work. A fine writer and excellent podcaster.

 

[Benjamin Clayborne]

I'm glad you've enjoyed my wive's podcasts on DRS. She's a pretty sharp cookie. If you are enjoying podcasts I highly recommend Nathan lowell's works. You can't go wrong with any of his work. A fine writer and excellent podcaster.

I want to listen to those podcasts, too, it's just that they're each an hour long, and if I spend an hour listening to a podcast I can't be doing anything else and actually pay attention to it. I can write (or code, at work) while I listen to music, preferably instrumental -- movie soundtracks, classical, Joe Satriani. But I can't write (or code) and listen to talking at the same time. Either I'll tune out the audio, or I'll stop writing to listen. Bah, I'll find a way.

 

[Dreamhand]

Holy crap, Michael! Now THAT is a small world... I had JUST finished reading "The Viscount and the Witch" in the Showcase section and the pieces fell into place ("wait... I've heard of this story... WAIT... 'Michael Sullivan'... DOH!"). Yes, your wife is a very sharp cookie... she's really helped refine my view of what lays ahead. Please extend my thanks and continued appreciation for her willingness to share her perspective with us.

I've heard some of Nathan's work - his voice work in JD Sawyer's "Down From Ten" and a piece he wrote for Pip and Tee's "Ministry of Peculiar Occurrences" series - and he certainly commands a lot of respect in the community. I'll load up my iPad accordingly.

Benjamin... you sound like an active, energetic, multi-tasking fiend. I have no doubt you'll make it work as best suits your style.

 

[Kevin O. McLaughlin]

I can't recommend Dead Robot's Society enough. Every time I have a long drive someplace, I load a bunch into my trusty MP3 player and I'm good to go for hours. And EVERY SINGLE EPISODE featuring Robin is outstanding. They're almost "must listen to" material for working in the field, at least in indie publishing.

Yeah, Robin's a smart cookie. If you listen to the DRS episode about the Absolute Write debacle, I'm the Kevin McLaughlin that was alongside her in that little mess. A good day, that was.

 

[Legendary Sidekick]

Hey,
Feel free to pick away at my brain anytime you wish. I'll gladly do some guest posts...my wife is the real expert. I highly recommend her blog she has a lot of great content there.

Your wife certainly offers a lot of great advice, and so far I've only seen her most recent posts (Goodreads & distribution). When I have specific questions, I'll PM you.

 

[boboratory]

I would concur as well with this data...

We (Brick Cave Media) did a press presentation yesterday, and based on our 2011 data, Amazon was easily the best store for our 28 titles- surprisingly, Kobo was second, and was a strong second. The iBookstore fared poorly for us, and Diesel has yet to sell a single copy in 12 months. Most of the other major bookstores fell in the middle.

When we started out in 2009, we used Smashwords to distribute, but as our number of titles has consistently grown (and as we became more comfortable with the market) have started to shift to direct agreements with (most) of the stores. We still use Smashwords, and we've had a good experience with them.

We use three price points, .99, 1.99 and 2.99. Most of our poetry books (say 30-75 print pages) we release at .99, along with shorts (10,000 words or less), anything that would be a 75-100 page print book we price at $1.99, and anything we would see at 100 page or more in print we price at $2.99. I see pricing happening all over the map right now, which is understandable in such a new medium, but I think these prices can both appeal to readers and provide us (both the writers and the organization) enough income to keep going. In the interests of full disclosure- right now, we are not selling enough volume to do that, which I attribute that the organization needs to do a better job marketing through all the noise.

That being said, we have some 33,000 word works at .99 (because they are serials) and we just launched on Nov 1 our first book (a Fantasy) at $3.99. It is by our most popular author. I don't really see us going over that, the authors are concerned with pricing themselves out of sales, and I think that both the authors and the organization can do well if the organization does it's part by marketing well, and the author does their part by writing compelling material.

 

[Dreamhand]

boboratory, what do you see as the author's role in promoting their works that you are publishing? In this "new world" of publication, it seems that authors can't just sit back and write brilliant prose. What do you require, what do you request, and what do you hope for?

I'm also curious regarding marketing efforts you have employed (banner ads? cross-promotion?) and their results. While a few of us in the Mythic Scribes community have enjoyed success in the publication of their works, many of us are still trying to get our collective acts together as things continue to change and evolve in the industry. Any insights you'd be willing to share from your perspective, particularly regarding the author's role in the success of their books, would help us contribute to the growth of our careers and the genre.

 

[boboratory]

Dreamhand,

That is a great set of questions - with the book that we just released, the author has been VERY active online, working a facebook group established for the trilogy, coming up with ideas for giveaways, etc. This particular Author has some challenges with appearances because of family obligations, so I have tried to manage around that. Now, in all fairness, the author and I have known each other a number of years, so we have a strong relationship prior to this publishing one.

Promotion wise, we were very aggressive on facebook, setting up a page for the trilogy and buying ads to build the base, with success, 0-1,000 likes in 15 days if I remember correctly. Both the Author and I are admins on the page, so it ads some flexibility to managing the page. I used Google Adsense, I think with little success (which could just be a poorly worded ad). The hardest part, is converting the money spent on Ads to book purchases, which I don't need to tell anyone, but I think because the Facebook page allows us to engage the subscribers multiple times over an extended period, it gives a better chance to do that. I have been tempted to do a banner campaign for this particular fantasy book (on a fantasy banner network), but I have not pulled the trigger just yet.

What I am doing is starting local. This is a fantasy book, so I've pulled together all the conventions, fan groups, publications, email lists and online resources locally (for Arizona, start here: Arizona SF/F and related clubs). I'm small, so none of these places knew I existed, so I'm really promoting both the press and the book. I have engaged them, introduced myself, asked about their organization, let them know we have a book we've published in their genre and asked if there is some way we can let others know about the book. Every interaction has been positive, because I've avoided just a sterile press release. It takes alot of time, but I've met some very cool people doing it, and the book is getting press. I would think that that is what an author should expect from their publisher, that the publisher will "spread the gospel" about their book. In essence, act like a marketing firm, because that really where I see the reality of how Publishers can still stay relevant in the age of LuLus and Createspaces, and E-Books.

We (as in all of us collectively) want to be able to tell people about the books we publish, so the system that allows you to interact with people over time, and build a relationship with them, has the best chance to do that.

Typically, I am seeing that people want to meet the face behind the book. Right now, I am asking my authors to be engaged, to not neglect their presence online, be it facebook, twitter, or what have you. If you are genuinely active, and people see that you are active, they will take more interest in what you are doing. One of my other authors for whatever reason has been gathering twitter followers like gangbusters, because she does the follow friday's, and she'll post about other books she has read and people feel comfortable that she is not just on twitter to sell her books. Subsequently, she's getting guest blog requests, and advice requests, and bunches of followers, all without us having to spend a dime on advertising.

Most importantly, if you are with a small publisher, it really is a partnership. In my case, I am an office of one, and I (try to, not always successfully) stick to writers that I know and writers in common themes, so when I do contact someone about one book, and they check out the site, they find other books in the same genres. I work Fantasy/Sci-Fi and Poetry because those are the things I like to read and write myself.

I try to communicate with my authors regularly, most of them it's daily, just to make sure they know what I'm up to and to keep communication active an open. I have a small (less than 20) stable of Authors, so it's not that hard to shoot a facebook message or comment on a post or what have you. This is a big post, so I will save my Bookstore discussion for another time...

 

[Dreamhand]

Wow... thank you, Bob! I'm betting your authors are grateful to have you slugging for them.

The idea of fan interaction and meeting the face behind the book makes good sense... between YouTube, FB, and Twitter the perceived distance between "celebrity" and "fan" is next to nil. I think this may be one of the biggest challenges for many authors (and their publishers), but it's a major pulse in the digital lifeline.

Out of curiosity... do you consider yourself a "small", "micro", or "indie" publisher? Not trying to label you, here, just curious about your perception of what you're doing. The kind of trail-blazing niche-carving you're undertaking is one of the more exciting aspects of life and creativity in the new millennium and I'm sure you've stared the risks and rewards in the face long enough to be comfortable "out on the edge". Did this just evolve organically or did you specifically set out to create BCM.

There's a trend (or maybe it's just a vague pattern) I've noticed where authors serialize their works as podcasts, offering them for free (on iTunes, Podiobooks.com, etc) to build a fan-base and follow it up with the actual published book (Tee Morris, Pip Ballantine, and Scott Seigler come to mind). What's your opinion of this tactic? Is this a potential promotional asset or do you feel there are better ways for authors/publishers to invest their time and effort?

 

[boboratory]

"Out of curiosity... do you consider yourself a "small", "micro", or "indie" publisher? Not trying to label you, here, just curious about your perception of what you're doing."

I would definitely say micro, I joke that we are a "microglomerate".

"Did this just evolve organically or did you specifically set out to create BCM."

It's definitely been a process. Through the literary nonprofit I am a part of, we tried to sell PDF issues of the magazine we published in 1998/1999. We felt we knew the value, but we did not understand that people weren't ready for it. We started a podcast in 2000 with a friend of mine, and realized after a year and a half that no one had broadband to be able to listen to what we were doing . BCM specifically is my third creation, after a separate self publishing effort and the literary NP that still runs today.

"There's a trend (or maybe it's just a vague pattern) I've noticed where authors serialize their works as podcasts, offering them for free (on iTunes, Podiobooks.com, etc) to build a fan-base and follow it up with the actual published book (Tee Morris, Pip Ballantine, and Scott Seigler come to mind). What's your opinion of this tactic? Is this a potential promotional asset or do you feel there are better ways for authors/publishers to invest their time and effort? "

It's interesting, I like serializing for a couple reasons- the reader can get as little or as much as they want, and I believe that the author can craft an overall longer reading experience. Chapter Books were all the rage in the mid 1800's, because the authors could afford to self publish at that level, and people purchased them. One of the distribution services I work with frowns on it, and I'm not sure why. I mean, 5 stories at $.99, well written, that make up a book, would seem to me to be a better ROI than the complete book at $2.99. I can only think that they'd rather have the $2.99 in the hand than the potential for the $4.96 that someone might choose to buy one, then forget about the rest... I guess I'm more comfortable with risk.

I do think Serializing is a trend, all of my authors have talked to me about it, some have talked to me about giving away shorter pieces, and I'm ok with that, but I think they miss the point, there is so much free stuff out there now you actually have to market to get people to download your free stuff, so why not market to get them to give you something for it?. We serialize at BCM, although the results I would say are mixed, or I would say that the sales results work against my argument for serializing.

I think if you are providing it at no cost, you have to be careful that that is what people label you as... so when they come back to your site, and you are selling your next book, they don't buy it, because you've trained them to look for "your work=free".

We (and I include myself in this) think that we write well enough that if we can just get people a sample, they'll be hooked. There are many of us, we have to remember that.

Still, I do think free samples, or whole books even can be an effective tool, if used appropriately, and not as the only way people see you.

 

[MichaelSullivan]

In this "new world" of publication, it seems that authors can't just sit back and write brilliant prose.

I think that the "new world" isn't really all that new. In other words, the most successful authors have always been very participatory in marketing their works. Heck, James Patterson bought his own television comericals. The issue is that no one will have as much of a vested interest in your book's success than yourself. My publisher has done fabulous by me and I'm very happy with all they've done but I also know they nave 50 other authors and 15 - 20 will be having books coming out at the same time as mine...their time is divided between them so the only one that is 100% dedicated to my works would be myself and my wife.