Kevin O. McLaughlin
Sage
While that's probably true, no trend continues at a constant pace forever. At some point the ebook-to-print sales ratio will stabilize. I don't know where, or how soon, but it's inevitable that the growth of ebooks will hit their ceiling, and print its floor. I wouldn't be surprised if the trend begins to slow relatively soon - fewer people are buying ereaders and tablets for the first time.
Sure. In fact, 2012 saw ebook growth slow somewhat. You're going to see a lot of folks point to percentages of ebook growth and show how dismal the ebook market share growth was, but the actual revenue value of ebook sales still went up significantly from 2011 to 2012 (the market share percent didn't go up as much because the market share was already so high).
The trend will slow. It will continue to slow over the next few years. But it won't stabilize for another decade or more, I think. It's going to take that long for print to finally fade out as an ordinary consumer good.
By 2015, many colleges expect to go to ebook only textbooks. Within a few years after that, several states plan to be ebook only for textbooks grades K-12. By 2020, I suspect most textbooks in the USA will be in ebook form for all levels. And that's the real crux; this new generation of students is going to grow up never touching a print book in school. So they're going to see print books as something quaint, the way younger folks today look at LP records. I suspect by sometime in the early 2020s, print books will only be made for precious books - either religious texts, or special limited/signed editions of books people want to keep and cherish. It could happen sooner; certain events (like when B&N declares bankruptcy and closes all their stores) will accelerate things. But I figure a ten year timeline is probably a good bet.