Does predictable = 'bad' ?

[Naruzeldamaster]

I'm strongly in the camp of 'not necessarily'
It could be the most 'predictable' thing ever, but if it's executed well and with a lot of finnesse I call it a win, especially if I'm entertained. Case in point, Anything Tom and Jerry or Loony Toons.

There have been many points in games/movies/shows where my 'writing gears' start turning.
'oh character X is going to do y' VERY early in the game/movie/show.

But most of the time it usually happens in a unique/interesting way. Usually the end result is surprising and / or interesting. I like it where I can 'guess' what's gonna happen but what actually happens is (mostly) different.

In Contrast, I also like when you 'predict' something to happen, but it doesn't happen to who or how you predicted it, that's always fun too.

 

[TheCrystallineEntity]

Phineas and Ferb, to go with your cartoon examples, is almost exactly the same in every episode, but it's clever enough to be entertaining.

 

[Naruzeldamaster]

Phineas and Ferb, to go with your cartoon examples, is almost exactly the same in every episode, but it's clever enough to be entertaining.

Yeah, shake up the formula just enough that the end result is amusing, and that's a win.
Phineas and Ferb had strong humor and didn't recycle jokes (too often, the ones that did were running gags)
Same events happened every episode but they brought different spice and sauce each episode.
It really helped that each episode had a unique plot.

 

[pmmg]

Well, are not romances pretty much predictable? And yet...they sell like hotcakes.

Somethings you just never get tired of.

 

[Naruzeldamaster]

Well, are not romances pretty much predictable? And yet...they sell like hotcakes.

It's true, I've seen who knows how many Rom Coms (including my own) that follow pretty much the same story beats. Anime or Otherwise.
Particularly 'frienemies to lovers' some shows / movies that I watch that aren't even Rom Com's have that plot. I love it as long as it's original.

Somethings you just never get tired of.

I grow tired of certain tropes within a genre (At least when they are cookie cutter, again, uniqueness and unexpected results is key) but I don't get tired of watching the things I like.

There's a type of media that I'm slowly growing toward wanting 'family friendly' content of it (probably a good thing) because the tropes that the type of media relies on to be 'engaging' is frankly annoying. It's a large driving force behind what spurred the creation of my King Midas story. I wanted to create a story that contained that 'content' but without the negatives (or at the very least, very little of the negatives). That story at it's core is just meant to be wholesome chaotic fun.

 

[Insolent Lad]

There is predictable and predictable. We can all predict Poirot will solve the case but predicting who the culprit will be is not so simple.

 

[Naruzeldamaster]

There is predictable and predictable. We can all predict Poirot will solve the case but predicting who the culprit will be is not so simple.

Same with Ace Attorney, we know the protagonists will get there in the end, but the journey to the destination is wild. About the only thing that's the 'same' every other case is they do the trademark 'the murder actually happened HERE' plot twist. Which is fine, it's always different spins on it.

The good guys almost always win, and even if it seems like they're losing they come back stronger.

 

[Adam Scribentis]

When watching Mockingjay Part 2, I was not surprised by what Katniss did when she turned up to the execution; I had seen it coming, although there was for me a margin of uncertainty since I was not sure whether she would also do to Character A what she was going to do to Character B. For others, there was even more uncertainty, since not everyone (it seems) did see it coming.

 

[A. E. Lowan]

Well, are not romances pretty much predictable? And yet...they sell like hotcakes

Somethings you just never get tired of.

There are a couple of reasons for that. Lots of readers find comfort and entertainment in knowing what to expect. There will be adventure and there will be flirting. There will be/won't be sex, and it will have this level of spice (I actually like this euphemism. It's clear but also approachable).

That's how Romance has become the behemoth it is. Comfort and escapism, tailored to order by a world of sub-genres..

 

[Penpilot]

If this were true, would unpredictable = good? I mean, I could rewrite Romeo and Juliet where instead of a tragic end, and completely out of the blue, they both discover a time machine, travel to the modern day, return to the past with machine guns, and mow down everyone trying to keep them apart. Unpredictable, but not good in the least.

The end is important, but how you get there matter's just as much if not more.

 

[Naruzeldamaster]

If this were true, would unpredictable = good? I mean, I could rewrite Romeo and Juliet where instead of a tragic end, and completely out of the blue, they both discover a time machine, travel to the modern day, return to the past with machine guns, and mow down everyone trying to keep them apart. Unpredictable, but not good in the least.

I kind of need you to write this one now, even if only as a joke lol

The end is important, but how you get there matter's just as much if not more.

This has been kinda my thinking, especially in a genre of video games that I like (RPG)
These days that genre is, unfortunately pretty formulaic.
BUT it's all in how you get there, the people you meet etc.

That's what I hope for my story that's emulating a role playing game (Both tabletop and video games)
The cast (even the 'divine' entities) don't take the plot overtly serious unless it's required, so I hope people enjoy the ride.

 

[casval]

It just depends on the story, genre, etc. - I'm definitely at an age where I can 'predict' where most stories are going by about the end of Act 1, but I still have fun reading or watching them anyway. Maybe the downside to being predictable is that it takes real craft - phenomenal prose, exceptional character writing, etc. - to still make the story stick with me, because otherwise it just sort of gets thrown into the perpetual stew of my mind of stuff I've read without standing out at all. Sometimes you want something disposable, though, just for some easy fun.

For an odd example in the other direction, there's a new documentary out called You Can See Everything, about Elizabeth Holmes (the CEO of Theranos, she went to jail for fraud a few years ago). It's a documentary, and I knew the story pretty well, knew the details of her company and the specifics of her defrauding charges... but wow, it was still a really shocking, unpredictable film! It's the things I couldn't have expected that still have me chewing on it days later.

 

[Prince of Spires]

To throw some research into the discussion, but in general it actually seems like people enjoy stories for which they've had spoilers more than for unspoiled stories => Spoiler alert: spoilers make you enjoy stories more

Of course, this isn't true for everyone and for all stories everywhere. However, in general it seems like predictable = good, not bad. It's almost as if the journey is more important than the destination.

It should be noted that most outcomes are spoiled anyway. People read a romance to see how the two main character get together, not because they're wondering if they get together. And for most fantasy stories, we know the hero will succeed, but we want to see how he succeeds.

If you take a step back, there are 3 types of stories (in this context):
- stories that follow a specific plot almost exactly
- stories that borrow from a type of plot, but deviate in places
- stories that only loosly follow a kind of plot

These give different stories. And people prefer different kinds and can at different times prefer different stories. Someone just starting out in a genre might like stories that follow the common plot archetype exactly. They might read a handful of Hero's Journey stories. And once they've seen those stories play out, they might venture outside that plot a bit to see what else there is.

Just know which one you are writing.

 

[Penpilot]

One other thing to consider is this. Some people point to bad story and attribute predictability as one of the elements that made it bad. But we know there are lots of good stories that are fairly predictable.

What's the difference? It's how engaging the story is. If I"m not engaged with a story, my mind starts to wander. I do this a lot with movies I don't like. Instead of being caught up in each moment of the story unfolding, I start to analyse things more closely than I would if I was just enjoying the ride. Why is this person present? Why is that object being focused on? Why did that character say it like that?

My audience brain turns off and my analytical, writer brain turns on, so I may pick up on certain things more readily and consciously put pieces together quicker than the story wants. For me, I'm conscious of what's going on, but I suspect for some, they aren't aware they've switched into a more analytical mind set. They just know it's a bad story, and it's predictable and link those things together.

 

[TheCopperChicken]

I largely agree, and would also add that there are many times when "unpredictable = bad". I'm sure we can all think of a few beloved franchises that upset fans by not giving them the outcomes which they had been hoping to see.

I think what matters more than predictability is narrative satisfaction. The audience are happy to watch the good guy predictably overcome the bad guy in the third act, as long as it's a conflict that they are invested in. Alternatively, they will accept a dramatic twist, but only if it's one that holds true with narrative and tone that the author has promised them.