Demographics, not so easy.

[ascanius]

So I've been working a lot on world building these past few months. I came across this page a while back but have been rereading it for insight.
http://migration-issues/westeros-is-poorly-designed-3b01cf5cdcaf#.z78a4wrr6

How do your worlds fare against such scrutiny?

 

[Alyssa]

Link above doesn't work for me, just in case:
Westeros is Poorly Designed ? In a State of Migration ? Medium

 

[Ban]

Interesting read.

For my Fantasy world, which is currently on hold, I think I did relatively well on demographics. A 1600s-1900s mixture of techs and ideas with a total world population of around 800-900 million seems plausible when dangerous monsters are roaming around

I think the writer is also very right on worldbuilding being a reflection of the writer's mind. My fantasy world's primary area of conflict is decisively western-european in culture. If you consider American culture to be largely interchangeable with English culture (which I do) then I'd say all my worlds are western-european. Never thought of that really.

...Aaaaand I have Martin's dynasty of 17 rulers with an average reign of 17 years beat by a dynasty of over 30 rulers with an average of 20-30 years rule. There goes the realism

 

[FifthView]

The article is very interesting and can serve as fodder and inspiration for world building.

But most of our books are only guesstimates, right? We are usually writing from a handful of select POVs, and most of those are quite limited POVs. If you select 15 people at random off the street in Bloomfield, Ind., and ask them how many people live in St. Louis, Mo., or Colorado Springs, Co., or New Orleans or Pune, Maharashtra, India, most of them will be quite wrong in their estimates. They simply don't know and will overestimate or underestimate quite a bit. Similarly, our characters aren't likely to have an objective overview of their own world. And leaving things a little vague—or, suggestive—allows our readers to fill in the gaps and build impressions that work for them.

An example from that article:

"The Battle of Yarmouk, after which the Caliphate siezed the entire Byzantine East, had just 50,000 fighters or so, with the result that the Caliphate conquered the entire region. Crucially, it should be noted that contemporaries gave much higher numbers: the Byzantines were routinely asserted to be fielding 100,000 men, while Muslims were depicted as leading hundreds of thousands."

So if we are writing, erm, authentic to a character voice, that character might describe the villain's army as having 100,000 soldiers even when there are only 30K. The actual number probably won't matter much to the story; suffice to say, there were a lot, and the important impression for our reader will be the sense of vastness.

That said, some extreme goofiness could throw readers out of the story.

 

[TheKillerBs]

I put a bit of work into the demographics of the setting where it mattered. I have 9 ethnolinguistic groups in a continent about the size of Europe, divided into a lot more subgroups. My total population was... I don't recall, actually, and the computer with that information is dead. I think the population density was probably about 30/sq km (roughly 11/sq mi if my math is right). The other setting is about hilariously overpowered wizards so realistic demographics weren't of particular interest.

 

[Alyssa]

wrong way round, you want to multiply 30 by 2.56, so a population density of 77 per sqm

 

[WooHooMan]

I don't want to pat myself on the back or whatever but I think my settings would hold-up well to this kind of examination.
It helps that my most in-depth setting is only about 400 square miles. That alone clears-up like half of this person's criticisms.

Granted, I think all this boils down to some very silly nitpicking. And I'm saying this as someone who really doesn't like ASOIAF.
I do think this is a good argument against those type of people who insist on working on their setting to the last detail. Sometimes it's better to keep things vague.

 

[Demesnedenoir]

I am down with keeping things vague, and fantasy worlds throw off everything... What is the average population density of trolls in a subtropic mountainous setting? How does that effect the human population? I mean, what is the rate of consumption of humans by trolls per capita anyhow? What is the average lifespan of a human when there are common plants able to cure cancer? And in GoT there are obviously sooo many things historically that are mythic for timelines and all that. It flat out gets goofy.

While I respect nerdliness in its many forms, and find it interesting, in this case it isn't worth thinking about too much. Basics are plenty good, unless of course your society runs an accurate census and you choose to release those numbers for public consumption... then you might need to put some thought into it. If you're relying on IC opinions on such things... Fifthview has the right of it.

 

[DragonOfTheAerie]

This is why I don't give many actual numbers in my books

I do have an urban center in one of my WIP's that comes close to having 5-10 million people by my guess. But it's huge, like, covering an entire island. I don't care so much about the plausibility as i like the idea, and anyway, I never actually say what the population is.

This was a neat read, but it's really just nitpicking. Zero percent of readers will care and miscalculation of population density shouldn't ruin a story for anyone.

But, hey, whatever floats your goat.

 

[valiant12]

I think this article have too much nitpicking in it.
I don't think most readers care about the exact size of a fictional continent.

 

[Mythopoet]

I think this article have too much nitpicking in it.
I don't think most readers care about the exact size of a fictional continent.

Possibly. I think readers of worldbuilding genres (fantasy, sci fi) tend to care about these things more than readers of other genres. Most readers aren't going to sit down and try to calculate the population density of any fantasy worlds, but then they aren't going to be reading articles about fantasy demographics either. This article is explicitly aimed at the obsessive fans who do care about these things and spend ridiculous amounts of time trying to figure out the minutest details about Westeros. And ASoIaF has a lot of those. It is constantly being held up as an uber realistic fantasy world and an example for anyone who wants to write uber realistic fantasy. So I don't think the author is being too pedantic in pointing out its major faults.


Very interesting article. Gave me lots of food for thought. The follow up with answers to some reader comments was also very interesting: It?s Okay That Westeros Is Poorly Designed ? In a State of Migration ? Medium

 

[Ban]

I think this article have too much nitpicking in it.
I don't think most readers care about the exact size of a fictional continent.

But some do. Besides, learning stuff is alot more fun when done in the context of a popular fantasy world.

 

[ascanius]

I'm one of those readers to about 50%. I always figured Westeros was more or less the size of Great Briton, which never really made sense now that I think of it. See there are few things that made me think it was this size, and the big one is there is no diversity whatsoever to imply that is larger. One of the things that always bugged me was these huge population cities without much in-between to make it seem inhabited, I'm talking the books. It's hard to explain but basically I got the impression that between important cities and town there wasn't really anything. I understand why i got that impression.

I think that simply being aware of restrictions such as those mentioned help, especially in creating explanations for why things are the way they are. So if someone wants a huge city that is unrealistic, it gives the opportunity to create/world-build a system for how it is sustained and why it is the way it is. Are you going to show the reader every single explanation, I hope not, but it sure gives opportunities to your characters and plot. In another thread someone, Nimue, is talking about a very restrictive world environment. Things are going to develop differently which also means society and culture are too. It's going to be an interesting setting IMO. I'm of the school that the setting is the most important character because it shapes every other character.

One of the things I really like about this is it naturally leads to ethnic/linguistic/racial/socaial...etc diversity and not token quota characters. Doesn't mean the reader knows everything only that it gives the author much more material to work with.

As for me I'm not doing to bad. So far I have around 100 different major linguistic/culture groups, most are just a name on freemind. A few have very basic information such as rituals, symbols, heroes. One thing I'm looking forward to, one my history timeline is done, is swapping cultural traits among the cultures through history. I'm hoping that it will help create vastly different cultures.

I just hope that when all is said and done, my books will inspire such passion in people.

ps. The follow up answeres and questions are good too. Some are downright funny.

also for those interested. Notes on Medieval Population Geography ? In a State of Migration ? Medium

 

[FifthView]

I do think that where this matters is around the fringes, the edges, and the impressions readers receive.

A television show called Olympus comes to mind. The first time I tried watching it, I just couldn't bring myself to watch the second episode. I eventually watched the whole thing and ended up liking it by the end but only because I let myself fall into enjoying it as I might enjoy Greek mythology. The focus is on a handful of key players and that's about it. Every visit outside a major city is absolute wilderness with no villages, no people, no random travelers, etc., and there's only a smattering of "the common people" as a threadbare backdrop in the population centers. There's no sense of commerce between cities, and very little to suggest complex political wrangling between power centers. (The show The Shannara Chronicles is similar in this regard.)

Compare Olympus to Merlin, a show that I absolutely loved, and the difference is obvious: While also focused on a central location (Camelot), various villages and towns were scenes for some episodes, there were always travelers coming to Camelot from other areas, politics between different kingdoms was depicted, and so forth. The world actually felt real even if a lot of the exterior world was left vague.

Even if we leave a lot of the demographics vague, we still may need to be aware of the types of impressions (or suggestions) we do give.

Westeros did seem to me to be largely uninhabited between the major power centers, to a degree; but there were always travelers on the move and a lot to suggest that maybe the focus on the power centers and powerful families was merely the particular story being told. I was only a little troubled not seeing more of Westeros. In contrast, Easteros always seems more complex demographically and more packed with people. In general, the two continents always left me with a feeling of Greek city states vs Persian Empire. Not culturally; but with centralized power structures that were interactive but separate (like city states) and more cultural homogeneity in Westeros, and a more chaotic heterogeneity in Easteros.

The only big-name book that has left me feeling disappointed in this regard, that I can readily remember, is the first Mistborn trilogy. Weirdly, although I stormed through the three novels, loving them, now years later I hardly remember much. I vaguely recall a plantation setting early in the first book (I think), and I remember feeling that the whole world in which it takes place was rather vague, undeveloped, and it had an unreal feel. But I did enjoy the trilogy.

 

[valiant12]

Possibly. I think readers of worldbuilding genres (fantasy, sci fi) tend to care about these things more than readers of other genres. Most readers aren't going to sit down and try to calculate the population density of any fantasy worlds, but then they aren't going to be reading articles about fantasy demographics either. This article is explicitly aimed at the obsessive fans who do care about these things and spend ridiculous amounts of time trying to figure out the minutest details about Westeros. And ASoIaF has a lot of those. It is constantly being held up as an uber realistic fantasy world and an example for anyone who wants to write uber realistic fantasy. So I don't think the author is being too pedantic in pointing out its major faults.


Very interesting article. Gave me lots of food for thought. The follow up with answers to some reader comments was also very interesting: It?s Okay That Westeros Is Poorly Designed ? In a State of Migration ? Medium

Who exactly consider Westeros uber realistic ?
By the way in my imagination Westeros is a very culturalaly diverse place .

There's no sense of commerce between cities, and very little to suggest complex political wrangling between power centers.

I haven't watched that show , but Greece in real live is very mountainous country. Cities with weak navy and landlocked cities don't traded much.

 

[FifthView]

The problem with Olympus is that a handful of characters would flit from large, empty set piece to large, empty set piece without encountering much indication that there might be whole societies and life occurring in the land or even in the handful of cities or population centers.

I would also make a distinction between "what was" — i.e., historical reality — and the sort of impressions that an artistic representation can give. My focus is more on the artistic representation and whether we can suggest a vibrant, living world and human populations rather than merely move from convenient set piece to convenient set piece. Even if we do not represent the world in toto, or are vague, we can still create a sense of a real world in which the story happens.

Edit: One general impression I had of Olympus, and one that is fairly common in the television medium, is that a limited budget may sometimes force the creators' hands. I wondered if this was part of the problem with The Shannara Chronicles as well. A limited budget for creating sets, special effects, and hiring lots of extras can lead to a less realistic "world." But this cause should play no role in the medium of written fiction.

 

[Russ]

I haven't got a chance to check his math, but I found at least of couple of places in his "critique" where he was historically selective or narrow minded, or perhaps even ill informed.

Take this one for example:

Why? Simple. In pre-modern societies, most people didn’t migrate. Ever.

Well anyone who knows their history nows this assertion is patently untrue. Take a look at the Huns, Lombards, Vikings, Jews, Muslims, Mongols, etc who are all pre-modern groups. There were lots of historical migrations in the pre-modern period. Just ask the Spanish, Romans, Germans and Byzantines if they would agree with his conclusions.

He also bitches about the length and stability of the dynasties:

Consider the Targaryen dynasty. They lasted 283 years on the Iron Throne, with 17 rules, for an average of 17 years of reign per ruler. That is incredibly implausible, even with fire-breathing dragons. Consider the Roman Empire, a similarly vast political entity: no dynasty ever lasted more than 15 rulers, and no direct descendant dynasty lasted more than eight rulers. The longest-lived dynasty were either the Julio-Claudians or the Nerva-Antonines, both of whom used adoption extensively, neither of whom lasted even 100 years. But their average reigns were 19 and 14 years, so that makes 17-year-average sound reasonable.

Now this is just cherry picking. There were long lasting dynasties that originated in the middle ages. Take for instance, the Habsburgs, who ruled Austria from 1278-1918 and also led the Holy Roman empire for more than 400 years...and they don't even make this list:

The Language Journal: Top 10 Dynasties in the World That Ruled the Longest

Now I don't have the time to check some of this other assumptions but his historical analysis (as opposed to demographic) does not stand up to scrutiny.

There is also the problem of his underlying assumption, that the parameters of a fantasy world should be constrained by our historical experience. Westeros is not Western Europe. Overall his analysis did not impress me.

 

[ThinkerX]

Hmmm...

Ok, principle country of the principle world is Solaria, which is very roughly 2500 x 1200 miles, with around a third of that taken up by a central sea. Solaria is a sort of rough clone of the roman empire that took its own course of development.

Multiple dynasties, though not all of the old ones are extinct. (Owes to raw power politics combined with a Senate that can depose or establish lineages.) Current one has been on the throne for about 130 years, eight rulers, a couple of whom lasted a long time (three decades plus).

Four or five cities in the half million population range, and I try to make it clear these cities suck up a giant chunk of resources. This becomes rather crucial in one of my stories. A couple, owing to wartime migration, have their populations pushed to the one million mark - with a corresponding decline in the number of peasants working the fields elsewhere.

Ethnic groups - lessee...Solarian's proper (Roman), Kheffian's (Egyptian), Avar (kind of sort of Celtic), Kitrin (no real parallel), Carbone (Greek), Gotlander (Norse), Marfak (desert nomad), each with appropriate subdivisions. The Empire imposes a common language overall (Solarian), though in the west, a sort of 'Trade Tongue' is more useful. There are a couple of story episodes where language becomes crucial. ('wretched provincials don't speak common.')

Armed forces - I went with the old roman legion model: ten (actually eleven) legions, each with five thousand rank and file troops, plus officers, scouts, and whatnot. Fully mobilized, each legion 'twins' - officers and senior troopers serve as the backbone for hastily recruited a Gemini legion. So, 100,000 troops total there. The church also had its own troops, patterned after the legion model, though nowhere near as well trained and equipped (and usually around half legion size). Seven church legions, on the order of 50,000 troops, essentially a deployable militia. Plus around ten thousand knights, squires, and whatnot. Except even at the height of the fighting, the Solarian Empire never had more than 120,000 troops in the main theater (other borders), and keeping that many troops deployed over decades almost crashed the country.

 

[Alyssa]

Based on rome your numbers work out quite well, without warfare (which I'm not sure how to calculate properly and will vary with scorched earth tactics, refugees, etc, as well as distance of cities from borders) the country if sticking with normal percentages of arable land is self sufficient and does not need to import food. Your country could easily have 1, maybe even 2 cities over or at the 1 million mark and still produce food, although doing so would make them more prone to starvation during an invasion. Also with a central sea, seafood is also available and this I haven't even factored in.
Armies also work well, fitting nicely (and with a gap) in between the farming and city dwelling percentages. And many may be levied from peasant stock during wartime, particularly for church armies.
All in all, your demographics and population estimates for cities and armies are spot on.

Ok, principle country of the principle world is Solaria, which is very roughly 2500 x 1200 miles, with around a third of that taken up by a central sea. Solaria is a sort of rough clone of the roman empire that took its own course of development.

2,500 x 1,200 = 3,000,000 sq mi
3,000,000 x (2/3) [this is your land minus the central sea] = 2,000,000 sq mi
approx 5,200,000 sq km
population density of roman empire was 16 persons per sq km
your maximum population will be:
5,200,000 x 16 = 83,200,000 people in Solaria (60-70 million was the population of the roman empire)

Multiple dynasties, though not all of the old ones are extinct. (Owes to raw power politics combined with a Senate that can depose or establish lineages.) Current one has been on the throne for about 130 years, eight rulers, a couple of whom lasted a long time (three decades plus).

130 / 8 = 16.25 years per ruler
assuming two lived for 30 years each
70/6 = approx 11.5 years for the shorter lived ones
assuming three lived for 30 years each
40/5 = 8 years per ruler

Four or five cities in the half million population range, and I try to make it clear these cities suck up a giant chunk of resources. This becomes rather crucial in one of my stories. A couple, owing to wartime migration, have their populations pushed to the one million mark - with a corresponding decline in the number of peasants working the fields elsewhere.

5 x 0.5 = 2.5 million in cities
2,500,000 / 83,200,000 x 100 = roughly 3 % big city dwellers during peace
maybe 5% during war (4,000,000 total )

5,200,000 sq km of land
10% will probably be arable
520,000 sq km of arable land

utilizing the roman two tier crop rotation system my best estimates would be that about 1 sq km of land would produce food for 200-250 people, using the lowest estimates.
520,000 x 200 = 104,000,000 persons able to be fed (roughly 20,000,000 surplus for the population, but some of this will rot given improper storage and less might exist if livestock are kept for meat - also, only a small percentage of this will be available to nearby cities if the farms are more isolated) (if using 250 for average production, then you will have an even greater surplus)
assuming 85% (70,500,000 people) of the population (a number I have pulled out of thin air but seems about right compared to 1850s estimates of farmers in the US - about 65-70%) are involved in agriculture
5,200,000 sq km non urban (area of cities is negligible - ancient rome was approximately 14 sq km and housed approx 1 million people, pop density = 70,000 / sq km, estimates here may be way off, anywhere between 40,000 to 80,000)

81,000,000 (83,200,000 x .97 [% non big city dwellers]) / 5,200,000 = 15.5 persons per sq km living in farmsteads, villages, towns and small cities under .5 million. (155 if they live only in arable land, many will do so)

Ethnic groups - lessee...Solarian's proper (Roman), Kheffian's (Egyptian), Avar (kind of sort of Celtic), Kitrin (no real parallel), Carbone (Greek), Gotlander (Norse), Marfak (desert nomad), each with appropriate subdivisions. The Empire imposes a common language overall (Solarian), though in the west, a sort of 'Trade Tongue' is more useful. There are a couple of story episodes where language becomes crucial. ('wretched provincials don't speak common.')

Armed forces - I went with the old roman legion model: ten (actually eleven) legions, each with five thousand rank and file troops, plus officers, scouts, and whatnot. Fully mobilized, each legion 'twins' - officers and senior troopers serve as the backbone for hastily recruited a Gemini legion. So, 100,000 troops total there. The church also had its own troops, patterned after the legion model, though nowhere near as well trained and equipped (and usually around half legion size). Seven church legions, on the order of 50,000 troops, essentially a deployable militia. Plus around ten thousand knights, squires, and whatnot. Except even at the height of the fighting, the Solarian Empire never had more than 120,000 troops in the main theater (other borders), and keeping that many troops deployed over decades almost crashed the country.

 

[ThinkerX]

Based on rome your numbers work out quite well, without warfare (which I'm not sure how to calculate properly and will vary with scorched earth tactics, refugees, etc, as well as distance of cities from borders) the country if sticking with normal percentages of arable land is self sufficient and does not need to import food. Your country could easily have 1, maybe even 2 cities over or at the 1 million mark and still produce food, although doing so would make them more prone to starvation during an invasion. Also with a central sea, seafood is also available and this I haven't even factored in.
Armies also work well, fitting nicely (and with a gap) in between the farming and city dwelling percentages. And many may be levied from peasant stock during wartime, particularly for church armies.
All in all, your demographics and population estimates for cities and armies are spot on.

Thank you for that more detailed assessment.

Main difference is I put the core total populace at around 40 million...because a fair chunk of the land is desert (which you need to pass through to get to more desirable places.) Because its an Empire, though, with subject vassal kingdoms that sometimes gained true independence...that 40 million figure jumps up and down. Might have been 50-60 million...a few times. (Rome's borders fluctuated quite a bit.)

Another thing happening is technological development. A couple hundred years ago, the then reigning dynasty set up a series of semaphore towers to improve communications. One province, Equitant, took to manufacturing and exporting vastly improved (compared to medieval) farming equipment: more food, fewer peasants, and attendant social disruption. There is a major clash between the old line 'Estate' nobles (dependent on large numbers of slaves/peasants) and those employing technology.

The War, or rather its legacy (most stories are post war), is the biggie. Solaria's foe in this conflict was Traag, once part of Kitrin, a Solarian vassal state. Traag allied with another former vassal (Conon) and the remnants of ancient Agba, a collection of far distant city states, plus assorted barbarians and whatnot. Whole thing under the sway of a psychopathic cult with zero tolerance for dissent and apocalyptic plans. In practice...very crudely comparable to Alexander the Greats realm or that of the Mongols, as far as geographic extent and permanence. Traag and Conon both had populations close to the million mark, which put immense strain on the surrounding farm country, and made selling the war a lot easier. The cult originated in Agba, and took that part of the world over first. When Traag invaded, they basically waged a war of extermination against the local Solarian populace (Unfortunately, there are multiple real world parallels to this.)