Thoughts on predictability?

[Svrtnsse]

I've been pondering the concept of predictability lately and I've identified two main concerns:
First: How do I keep the reader interested in the story even though it's fairly obvious what's going to happen and how it's going to end?
Second: How do I surprise the reader in a way that still makes sense from a story perspective?

For the first bit:
I'm in a spot where I think it's fairly obvious to the reader what will happen next. There's no way they'll be surprised by the "plot-twist" I have coming for them. What I'm trying to do instead is have them wonder how my MC is going to handle the situation. My poor MC is absolutely clueless about the impending disaster and hopefully the reader will have connected enough with them to worry about how they'll deal with it.
So, in a nutshell, the events are predictable, but the character isn't (entirely). In theory this should work, right? What are your thoughts on this?

For the second bit:
This is trickier. My aim for the moment is to try and set up for something to happen that both the MC and the reader both really want to happen; something that should be within his reach and which would make for a great and rewarding culmination to the episode. Only, it won't happen, the MCs character flaws, that the reader should be aware of, starts acting up and ruining the moment.
That way, it should make sense for what happens to be possible to happen, it just shouldn't be the outcome the reader was hoping for.
This worries me a bit. I think I'm setting it up right, but I'm worried the reader will be disappointed in the story or feel cheated that the thing they expected didn't happen. What are your thoughts on this?

 

[Penpilot]

For the first bit, it's not the destination, it's the journey that matters. In Star Wars, did any of us really think Luke wouldn't make the shot? IMHO the trick is to have the reader so engrossed in the moment that they're not thinking of anything else. Easier said than done, but it's like a magician's slight of hand. You're so focused on what they want you to focus on that you don't see them pull things out of pockets etc. Also you know it's a trick and not real magic, but if you're being entertained, you don't care. You may try to think about how it's done afterwards but not during the performance.

I think that's why people spot the flaws in poorly written stories so much easier than a good ones. In poorly written stories, the reader's mind wanders when they're reading because they're not engrossed, so they spot the flaws much easier and they can't suspend disbelief. In a well written book, the reader is entertained and they don't care about the obvious outcome because the journey is fun. They want to be in the moment with the characters and generally won't think too far ahead while reading.


For the second bit. I think it's about setting up expectations and possibilities early on. If you're subverting expectations at the end of the book, subvert them early on too. The reader may not notice, but it's like subconsciously warming them up for the possibility. It's like warning them to expect the unexpected and lets them know what type of story you're telling, so they're not completely caught of guard when things don't follow the obvious path.

At the beginning of a story, the author promises the reader certain things. Make sure one of the promises is that expectations will be subverted and like you were saying make sure that certain possibilities are legitimately opened up. For example Star Wars again, when Han Solo abandons the rebellion at the end after he gets his money, that's set up when his character is introduced and HAN SHOT FIRST, but his surprise return is set up when he develops a true friendship with Luke throughout the movie and is hinted at when he says, "May the force be with you," to Luke right before the battle. A significant thing to say for a non-believer in that hokey religion.

If Han never came back, the audience would have been disappointed, but that wouldn't have been out of character and would have set up a very interesting situation. And I don't think the audience would have felt cheated. That's one of the reasons why Han Solo was so interesting in the first movie, his choices were legitimate choices, and the audience could see him legitimately taking either path.

 

[Terry Greer]

Ron Moore - the guy who successfully rebooted Battlestar Gaalctica - said about this that you have to give the audience what they want - but not quite how they were expecting it.

So I think you're right.
Let em see the plot twist coming, but give it an extra twist with something out of left field.

 

[Feo Takahari]

For the first: if it's not going to be a surprise, use it for dramatic irony instead. Let the reader know exactly what's coming, and hammer home just how unprepared the MC is.

For the second: failure tends to work best if the reader knows from the start that the MC is gonna fail in some way. Tragedy is the quintessential example, but I think it goes beyond that. For instance, Halo: Reach makes it clear from the beginning that the soldiers are going to die and the colony they're protecting is going to be destroyed, then focuses on the bravery of their sacrifice--their determination, not their failure, is what matters.

 

[Malik]

Predictability discussions always remind me of the mortician joke.

A guy dies of a massive heart attack and his body is delivered to the mortuary.

His wife goes to the funeral home to make the final arrangements for his interment. She speaks to the mortician about what her husband would be wearing, and says that she really wants him in an Armani suit for his trip to eternity. She gives him a blank check and says, "I don't care what it costs, but please have my husband in an Armani suit for the viewing and burial."

At the funeral, she sees her husband in the casket, dressed in a gorgeous gray silk Armani suit that fits him perfectly. She says to the mortician, "That's a beautiful suit."

To her astonishment, the mortician presents her with the blank check. "No charge."

"This can't be right," she says.

The mortician says, "Funny thing, a gentleman was brought in for our services shortly after you left, wearing this gorgeous suit. He looked like he was about your husband's build, so I just switched the heads."

You know the guy is gonna get the suit; you just don't know how.

There's nothing wrong with taking us to where we already know we're going. Just take us to see something unexpected along the way.

 

[Svrtnsse]

I predict this thread will derail into a discussion of rules in writing - if nothing else just so you'll all make an effort to prove me wrong.

 

[Addison]

Whenever I think of something predictable I instantly think of horror movies. My dad and I love watching them both for the scare factor, guessing who will die next, and laughing at how predictable the sequence is. Idiot hunter inches closer to the rustling bush and, sure enough, the demented killer lunges out and kills him by repeatedly slamming the butt of the gun into the hunter's head.

But with books it's different. We can't really see the story unfold around us like the characters are acting it out in the living room. Also the process of writing a story is much different and wonderful. All the layers working together to propel the story and keep the readers attached. If all writers were afraid of their story being predictable, and so they didn't publish, libraries and bookstores would be bleak and empty. The the way that you combine the plot and characters that makes the readers love it. Sure the plot may ring a bell but the interest is really how the characters act or react to the events.

If you're really worried about predictability, ask someone to read your story to get a fresh opinion. It could be you're anxious. You won't know until someone besides your inner-editor says so. Also, take a look at the other problems and subplots in the story, maybe one of them could evolve at the same time.

Hope this helped.

 

[The Dark One]

Ron Moore - the guy who successfully rebooted Battlestar Gaalctica - said about this that you have to give the audience what they want - but not quite how they were expecting it.

So I think you're right.
Let em see the plot twist coming, but give it an extra twist with something out of left field.

This is what I aim for every time. My concept of the best sort of escapist literature is where the writer sets up a pleasurable expectation as to what is coming, so the reader is thinking: OK, I can see where this is going...this is gonna be good.

The thing is, you need to take the reader where they think it's going but then make the scope of the story much bigger so the reader is just blown away by the unfolding power of the plot. What they thought was going to be good turns out to be monstrously awesome. Unexpected, and yet inevitable.

 

[Philip Overby]

I agree with using elements of predicatiblity in your writing as long as it doesn't feel forced or telegraphed. It's almost better to go for something that makes sense and is predictable than to swerve the audience with something silly so they'll say, "Oh, I didn't expect that!"

M. Night Shamalyan had one good twist in The Sixth Sense (and Unbreakable some would say) then it seemed like his whole career has been trying to top that twist and make the audience go "Oh!" when it would just have been better to tell a competent story.

 

[The Dark One]

Don't get me started on The 6th Sense. That's a prime example of what I call I dishonest twist because the writer/director changed the rules for the main character.

SPOILER ALERT

All the other ghosts, you could see their death wounds ad the kid was so scared he couldn't bear to be around them. This was not the case with Bruce Willis, so that's how he hid the twist. Very annoying.

 

[Mythopoet]

I'm in a spot where I think it's fairly obvious to the reader what will happen next. There's no way they'll be surprised by the "plot-twist" I have coming for them. What I'm trying to do instead is have them wonder how my MC is going to handle the situation. My poor MC is absolutely clueless about the impending disaster and hopefully the reader will have connected enough with them to worry about how they'll deal with it.
So, in a nutshell, the events are predictable, but the character isn't (entirely). In theory this should work, right? What are your thoughts on this?

This sends off warning bells in my reader-nature. Why exactly is the coming "twist" so obviously clear to the reader but not the character? What I would be very, very wary of here is that this discrepancy doesn't make the character look like an idiot. There should be some really good reasons that the reader can see it coming but the character can't figure it out.

This is trickier. My aim for the moment is to try and set up for something to happen that both the MC and the reader both really want to happen; something that should be within his reach and which would make for a great and rewarding culmination to the episode. Only, it won't happen, the MCs character flaws, that the reader should be aware of, starts acting up and ruining the moment.
That way, it should make sense for what happens to be possible to happen, it just shouldn't be the outcome the reader was hoping for.
This worries me a bit. I think I'm setting it up right, but I'm worried the reader will be disappointed in the story or feel cheated that the thing they expected didn't happen. What are your thoughts on this?

Just from the way you've described it here, this would probably want to make me throw the book across the room. (The only real drawback of ebooks is not being able to do that.) I can't think of anything good about a book that makes it seem like something the character and the reader both really, really want to happen is totally going to happen and then yanks the rug out from under their feet suddenly. That just sounds like the author playing a prank on the reader, and I do NOT read books for that sort of shenanigans. But perhaps you're going for the masochistic reader market?

The only thing I can think of that would make this sort of thing NOT feel like a punch to the gut is if this has already happened before in the story on a smaller scale (the character being within reach of something and then missing out because of character flaws). If it's supposed to some as a surprise... well, I as a reader would be cursing your name.

That's my two cents given with my reader hat on.

 

[Svrtnsse]

This sends off warning bells in my reader-nature. Why exactly is the coming "twist" so obviously clear to the reader but not the character? What I would be very, very wary of here is that this discrepancy doesn't make the character look like an idiot. There should be some really good reasons that the reader can see it coming but the character can't figure it out.

The reader should already be aware that the MC is a bit of an idiot (or to put it in a nicer way, he's naive, innocent and hopeful). I'm not too worried about making him look stupid, because he does that quite a lot.

Just from the way you've described it here, this would probably want to make me throw the book across the room. (The only real drawback of ebooks is not being able to do that.) I can't think of anything good about a book that makes it seem like something the character and the reader both really, really want to happen is totally going to happen and then yanks the rug out from under their feet suddenly. That just sounds like the author playing a prank on the reader, and I do NOT read books for that sort of shenanigans. But perhaps you're going for the masochistic reader market?

The only thing I can think of that would make this sort of thing NOT feel like a punch to the gut is if this has already happened before in the story on a smaller scale (the character being within reach of something and then missing out because of character flaws). If it's supposed to some as a surprise... well, I as a reader would be cursing your name.

That's my two cents given with my reader hat on.

This is definitely a concern. I don't want the reader to feel cheated. The thing that's going to happen has happened in a smaller scale earlier in the story, but I'm uncertain about if it's enough or not. I will probably drop some hints about it being a common occurrence in the MCs recent past as well and try to fit some of them in earlier on in the story.

 

[ink.]

I'm in a spot where I think it's fairly obvious to the reader what will happen next. There's no way they'll be surprised by the "plot-twist" I have coming for them.

In the simplest terms, then, that means that this 'event' of yours isn't a plot twist at all, its just a linear progression of the story. The way you deliver that will be how the story is received, kind of a similar thing to cinema, for example: In most war films, you know that there's going to be a big battle scene or shoot out. But how many war films can you say pull it off as well as the Omaha Beach scene from Saving Private Ryan? Soldiers storming a beach isn't an original concept, we all knew what was going to happen, history even tells us that they succeed in taking the beach and go on to win the war. But the way its captured, that is so engrossing that you can barely take your eyes off it. (Apart from when that man has his guts spilling out, crying for his mum, that's too emotional, you can look away then).

So, in a nutshell, the events are predictable, but the character isn't (entirely). In theory this should work, right? What are your thoughts on this?

In a nutshell, yes. Its difficult to say without an extract. People are flawed, that's what makes us so interesting. As long as it adds to the story, and makes for a real plot twist down the line its acceptable.

 

[psychotick]

Hi,

I'm reminded of a line from the movie Her Alibi (a movie I rather enjoyed despite all the negative hype about it). Everyone keeps telling Selleck all the way through the movie that his books are preditable. And towards the end his publisher / agent says the very same thing. And then adds that that's one of the best things about his books. Readers find it comforting.

And he's right. It's nice to have an odd twist here and there, but in the end readers mostly want certain things to happen. They want their heroes to win, get the girl, and the bad guy to lose. It fits with their world view. Throw in a shocker ending like the nightmare finish of Seven, and you'll get people like me who absolutely hate it. I suspect there are a lot more people like me out there.

I wouldn't sweat the predictibility. You can even get past the occasional derivative claims if you only do one thing. Write a book that absorbs the reader.

Cheers, Greg.

 

[Asinya]

Hoi!

Predictability in story is, imo, ok - I have actually only read one story where I didn't know at least roughly how it would end (and I HATED that book - so that wasn't a good thing. If you're curious, it was the last of these: The Darkangel Trilogy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia It still, to this day, like...15 or so years later, makes me ANGRY to think of the ending...)

So, ehm, sorry, I went Ranty again - but, predictability isn't a bad thing - as long as I (as reader) don't know How it will come about.

To overdo it massively: Like every story ever, almost, "good" defeats "evil" - but it's How they do it that is fun to read. To me.

As for the second bit, I think that as long as the character is familiar enough for me to shake my head and go "Amg, whai U dooo this?!?!" and facepalm a bit when I read it, it is ok - I will probably still want the happy thing to eventually happen though - if it (or something even Better) does Not happen, I will be very pouty and most likely decide I am displeased with the story.

Not sure if this helps, but, that's my thoughts