E-books Now 22% of US Publishers' Revenue

[Philip Overby]

AAP reports e-books now account for over 22 percent of US publishers' revenue

Interesting to note. My thoughts are that this number will continue to grow exponentially in the next several years.

Not sure the statistics for other countries but I wonder if they're in the same range.

 

[TWErvin2]

I suspect it will grow beyond 22%, but guessing where it'll strike a balance?

Recently I posted on my blog, my sales % (Print vs. ebook vs. audiobook).

Link: 2012 Updated Sales Percentages: Print vs. Ebook vs. Audiobook

In short, with my works what I've observed is there is an initial surge with print and then over time ebook versions increase and overtake the print sales. Audiobook is too new for me (only one title for less than a year. The second title is in production, and should be released this summer).

Of course, sales of my titles are a microscopic dot on the page of overall published titles and trends.

 

[Kevin O. McLaughlin]

I think the eventual "balance point" will be 99.something percent ebook, and the remaining few book in print. Most of those will be things like religious texts which are kept in print for reasons which go beyond practicality. Ebook will, in time, effectively replace print.

But we're a LONG way from that point.

The thing to remember is that AAP numbers only count the larger and some smaller publishers. They entirely miss self publishing - which is about half of ebook fiction sales, and over a third of ebook nonfiction sales. So the actual percentage of the market represented by ebooks is much higher than the AAP reports. Most estimates are that fiction is over half ebook in the US, for example, and growing.

So we're heading into a near future where one in every two books read in the US will be digital - that's happening this year, or maybe next. From there, it will continue to climb, but the rate will slow... Those remaining print readers will increasingly be die-hard "take my paper book from my cold, dead fingers" types.

B&N will close most or even all their physical stores within the next half decade. They're teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. That will move millions of readers to online book buying, and that will generate a new surge of ereading as some of those readers switch from print.

Schools in many states are planning to switch entirely to digital textbooks for K-12 within the next 3-10 years. It's going to happen at most colleges on the shorter end of that spectrum, because if publishers don't supply the textbooks at an affordable price, the professors will (already are, and university presses are becoming a major new source for digital textbooks). So in something like twenty years, the majority of kids graduating high school will have never used a print book in school.

With new ereaders that only cost about $12-15 to manufacture already on the market, the barriers to lower income folks are not so great.

Print will switch to print-on-demand for almost all titles within a decade. Most likely MUCH sooner than that, but a lot depends on when B&N closes. But POD will stick around for decades - for the rest of all of our lives, almost certainly, we'll be able to special order print copies of most titles. Our kids probably won't be able to say that.

Ebooks are a replacement technology. Love 'em or hate 'em, that IS the way the wind is blowing. Short of a massive global EMP (in which case, we'll have much bigger things to worry about anyway...) printed books are going the way of the illuminated manuscript and the scroll.

 

[BWFoster78]

I suspect it will grow beyond 22%, but guessing where it'll strike a balance?

Recently I posted on my blog, my sales % (Print vs. ebook vs. audiobook).

Link: 2012 Updated Sales Percentages: Print vs. Ebook vs. Audiobook

In short, with my works what I've observed is there is an initial surge with print and then over time ebook versions increase and overtake the print sales. Audiobook is too new for me (only one title for less than a year. The second title is in production, and should be released this summer).

Of course, sales of my titles are a microscopic dot on the page of overall published titles and trends.

While, as Kevin states, ebooks are probably only going to continue to grow, I think your numbers tell us that it is a mistake to ignore print at this point. Your data echos what another self-published author told me, that there are a lot of people out there who simply aren't interested in ebooks.

 

[Steerpike]

Can you get a good price point for a self-published book in print form? I'll buy them in eBook format, but I won't buy them in print when they are two or three times a regular print paperback. I know others who have made a similar complaint about print versions of self-published books. I think it is hard to get people to spend that much on a self-published book in print form.

 

[TWErvin2]

While, as Kevin states, ebooks are probably only going to continue to grow, I think your numbers tell us that it is a mistake to ignore print at this point. Your data echos what another self-published author told me, that there are a lot of people out there who simply aren't interested in ebooks.

Maybe it depends some too on how you market your books. But not having print available does eliminate part of the reading audience.

Can you get a good price point for a self-published book in print form? I'll buy them in eBook format, but I won't buy them in print when they are two or three times a regular print paperback. I know others who have made a similar complaint about print versions of self-published books. I think it is hard to get people to spend that much on a self-published book in print form.

What do you consider a good price point for mass market paperback size, trade paperback size and hardcover novels?

Again, I can only speak to my novels. In trade paperback Flank Hawk and Blood Sword run for $12.99 (sometimes discounted on Amazon). Those are the 6"x9" size, 290 and 296 pages. To compare, Iorich by Steven Brust novel (TOR) which is the same dimensions, 320 pages retails for $14.99 and Guardian of Night by Tony Daniel (Baen Books) which is also 6"x9" and 352 pages retails for $13.00. (I just looked in my shelf above my computer to pick two examples).

My short story collection (Genre Shotgun) is 5"x8", is 226 pages and retails for $8.99. Carry Me Home by Sandra Kring (Delta --an imprint of Random House) is a little larger 5.2"x8.2" and runs 288 pages. It retails for $15.00. (Again, an example pulled from my shelf).

I do think that the offset print versions from large publishing houses are more often discounted than PODs (only one of mine is discounted right now) and all three of the ones I mentioned are. Still, my novels are close in price, if not a little better. So, Steerpike, it is possible for POD, at least through my publisher, to price competitively with larger houses. I see no reason that a self-published author couldn't do the same.

I don't think POD mass market paperback is ever competitive with offset print mass market size books.

 

[Steerpike]

Maybe there are some POD publishers that can do it cheap. Thinking of Lulu, for example, I've seen trade paperbacks going from around $18 to $22. I tend to avoid trade paperbacks when I can, because of the price point, but I'll buy one from an author I know I like or maybe another that looks very promising. I doubt I'd buy one from a self-published POD author, though. Unless I was already familiar with them somehow.

 

[TWErvin2]

Maybe there are some POD publishers that can do it cheap. Thinking of Lulu, for example, I've seen trade paperbacks going from around $18 to $22. I tend to avoid trade paperbacks when I can, because of the price point, but I'll buy one from an author I know I like or maybe another that looks very promising. I doubt I'd buy one from a self-published POD author, though. Unless I was already familiar with them somehow.

Lulu is expensive and it's difficult to publish and sell a POD book at a competitive price--at least based on the two self-pubbed authors I know that went through them.

CreateSpace and Lightning Source are probably better choices with respect to producing a POD book at a competitive price. In my experience, Lightning Source's quality (the binding and cover) is a little better than CreateSpace's, but LS is a little more difficult to work with.

I don't know about CS's return policy, but LS's is cost prohibitive, and that's why many POD publishers and self-published authors don't select that option. But that also means most brick and mortar bookstores won't stock POD titles (unless they're returnable).

In some cases it requires the sale of 3 or more books to cover the expense of one 'returned' to LS. That's not a good formula for a publisher, and why they avoid that situation. What if B&N stores decided to order across the nation, 1000 copies if a title? Even if they sold 75% of the copies and returned 25% (which is optimistic) the publisher would break even, at best. What if it were the other way around? The publisher would take a big hit financially. So with POD and weak distribution, depending on LS's POD agreements, generally PODs can be special ordered at Brick and Mortar stores, but usually won't be stocked--unless the author/publisher makes a special contact with the bookstore owner.

I know, a little off topic--but unless that dynamic changes, and at least with small publishers PODs, they will never be stocked in bookstores, and the shift to ebooks will be accelerated. Even with major publishers, who have solid distribution, and as Kevin stated his belief of the direction above, it may be more costly to publishers. Then again, maybe not. There will not be large, warehoused print runs, with unsold books destroyed.

 

[SeverinR]

I also agree the numbers will rise.
Only the die hard collectors will keep buying paper print.
Its much easier to store a library in memory then in several rooms of a house.

 

[MichaelSullivan]

Just FYI...In genre it's much higher. I know my sales at 50/50 and I've talked to a few other fantasy writers who have reported the same thing.

 

[CupofJoe]

Digital formats (encompassing ebooks, audiobooks downloads and online subscriptions) accounted for 12% of the total invoiced value of sales of books in 2012, with this share rising from 8% in 2011, and from 5% in 2010.

Publishing Industry Continues to Grow with Sales of Consumer ebooks rising by 134%