Self Publishing: Interested?

[Svrtnsse]

Svrtnsse said it's a hobby. I know writers who would bristle at that. Only a hobby? I'm more serious than that! Or so they would claim.

A lot of writers would.

There's this saying going around about how if you want to be successful, you need to treat it professionally, or as a job. There's probably a lot of truth in that, and I see variations of the sentiment a lot.

I've given up on that kind of success, or I realized I don't want it badly enough to put in the work needed. Amateur is a good word - I just hadn't thought about it.

 

[skip.knox]

That's another thing that makes this a hobby for me (more of a compulsion, but let's leave that aside for now). I don't want to treat this like a job. A job takes priority. A job forces most other aspects of life to sit in the back. I write steadily, but if other things come up, I don't want that feeling of oh, I'm not doing my job.

Profession as a little friendlier. As one of my first college teachers pointed out, when you're a professor it means you "profess" to know things. I'd be comfortable saying I profess that I'm a writer, but that does feel a little timid. I am a writer. That sentence is more compact and doesn't introduce uncertainty. Besides, I've been a professor; this is different.

Hm. That just struck me. I *was* a professor. But once I retired I became a former professor, a retired professor, or various other amendments on the term. But I don't see how I can be a former writer. Even Harper Lee was always an author. And I guess that's where the term hobby comes up a bit short. I might make and paint miniatures (for example), but that doesn't mean I call myself a miniaturist, still less a painter. A hobby is a thing I do; author is something rather different. I still say we just don't have a proper word, save perhaps for "artist" as applied across all creative forms.

 

[Jason]

Useful posts, thanks all. I'm at the stage of gearing up to take a punt on Amazon Ads with my debut.
Another thing about self-publishing with Kindle Unlimited: I expected the KENP Read to show a steady trickle of activity. Not at all.

 

[Demesnedenoir]

Yeah, those numbers are from Bookscan, and it's also print only I think. I suspect an awful lot of new books never really hit brick and mortar shelves these days, that's reserved for proven money-makers and the new chosen ones, heh heh. The takeaway is simple, publishing is tough, but the picture is incomplete.

Any way you slice it, it's indie for me unless someone wants to send me a big check, heh heh.

It's a figure that became public because of the Penguin - Random House merger hearings. The number is for the big 5 + a few of the other big publishers (like Disney and Scholastic). So no small publishers in there. The original text (see What a Number… Shocking for instance), was that 'of the 58,000 trade titles published per year, fully half of those titles “sell fewer than one dozen books.”'

We had a discussion on this here: Will I ever get published and become a successful author or am I a deluded fool?. The figures are a bit less extreme, but Mad Swede did some digging, and the numbers he came across were:
>>>0.4% or 163 books sold 100,000 copies or more

>>>0.7% or 320 books sold between 50,000-99,999 copies

>>>2.2% or 1,015 books sold between 20,000-49,999 copies

>>>3.4% or 1,572 books sold between 10,000-19,999 copies

>>>5.5% or 2,518 books sold between 5,000-9,999 copies

>>>21.6% or 9,863 books sold between 1,000-4,999 copies

>>>51.4% or 23,419 sold between 12-999 copies

>>>14.7% or 6,701 books sold under 12 copies

So, if you traditionally publish, you have a 66% chance of selling fewer than 1,000 copies. More if you factor in that most of those selling more than 10k copies will be established authors and celebrities putting out best-sellers to established audiences. And 88% never earn out their advance (assuming $5k advance and $1 royalty per copy sold, so 5k copies to earn out your advance).

 

[Demesnedenoir]

There are so many variables with Amazon ads and KENP reads it can make your head spin.

Useful posts, thanks all. I'm at the stage of gearing up to take a punt on Amazon Ads with my debut.
Another thing about self-publishing with Kindle Unlimited: I expected the KENP Read to show a steady trickle of activity. Not at all.

 

[Devor]

So, if you traditionally publish, you have a 66% chance of selling fewer than 1,000 copies.

I want to go back to the question of money for a moment.

At a 20% royalty and a $5k advance, you've got to sell about 5,000 copies at $5 a book to pay out your advance and make more money.

Self-publishing ebook royalties are 70% on Amazon, so if we assume $2,000 in expenses (cover, editing, etc.), that means you've got to sell 572 books to break even, and another 1,428 to match that $5k advance, for a total of 2,000 sales.

So, if you sell under 2,000 books, you're going to make more money with traditional publishing.

If you sell over 2,000 books, it depends on how many additional sales a traditional publisher can get for you - that depends on too many things to speculate. I also think there's an upper range where a traditional publisher comes through with international markets and such.

But self-publishing, you've got to be pretty successful to just to beat out on getting an advance, and that's not going to be easy. The numbers for self-publishing are just as bad (or they're worse, but a direct comparison is hard to make).

 

[pmmg]

I want to go back to the question of money for a moment.

At a 20% royalty and a $5k advance, you've got to sell about 5,000 copies at $5 a book to pay out your advance and make more money.

Self-publishing ebook royalties are 70% on Amazon, so if we assume $2,000 in expenses (cover, editing, etc.), that means you've got to sell 572 books to break even, and another 1,428 to match that $5k advance, for a total of 2,000 sales.

So, if you sell under 2,000 books, you're going to make more money with traditional publishing.

If you sell over 2,000 books, it depends on how many additional sales a traditional publisher can get for you - that depends on too many things to speculate. I also think there's an upper range where a traditional publisher comes through with international markets and such.

But self-publishing, you've got to be pretty successful to just to beat out on getting an advance, and that's not going to be easy. The numbers for self-publishing are just as bad (or they're worse, but a direct comparison is hard to make).

And you are under contract, which you left out.

If a Trad publisher picks up my book, and it fails to get their money back, it is less likely to pick up the second. If I gain 500 readers from Trad, and they wont pick up the sequel, the series dies. If i get 500 on book 1, and I am indi, some of those readers may go for book 2, and I have something to build on. If I build a series, even though trad publisher did not go for the remaining one, do you think they may make a claim?

I know there would be a world of 'ifs' in that question. But indi types have freedom, that trad types dont.

 

[Jason]

KENP reads are also a matter of money. (Paying a small amount for each page turned by KU subscribers.)
I approached agents unsuccessfully before plumbing for self-publishing and hiring an editor. KENP appeared to be a sure contributor towards breaking even.
However - not a wink.
I'm now assuming that if Amazon Ads work for me and increase book sales, I will also see some KENP reads.

 

[ThinkerX]

Weirdly enough, my print book sales are on a par with the eBook sales. By that metric, I have sold a dozen plus print copies of each book - with an average profit of about two bucks a book. Then again, the $0.99 sale thing cuts the eBook profits down to coffee money - or maybe the cheapskate fast-food meal range.

 

[Devor]

If I gain 500 readers from Trad, and they wont pick up the sequel, the series dies.

Okay, that's fair.

Some of the people who make a living at self-publishing use a strategy of writing lots of smaller books. If you publish four shorter books in a year, then it's not 500 readers, but 500 readers times 4 books, and that all adds up. And a traditional publisher might give up on the series earlier than you would.

Contracts vary on points like those, so it's not given that a contract will prevent you from continuing the series, but it might.

So that's something to consider.

But indi types have freedom, that trad types dont.

No, success is freedom. Making a living doing the thing you enjoy doing is where the freedom is.

 

[Demesnedenoir]

It depends a lot on targeting. I have one ad running that gets more paperback, hardcover, and ebook sales than KENP reads, and another that is geared more toward the KU crowd.

KENP reads are also a matter of money. (Paying a small amount for each page turned by KU subscribers.)
I approached agents unsuccessfully before plumbing for self-publishing and hiring an editor. KENP appeared to be a sure contributor towards breaking even.
However - not a wink.
I'm now assuming that if Amazon Ads work for me and increase book sales, I will also see some KENP reads.

 

[ThinkerX]

The series strategy does seem to work even at my miniscule level. Books 1 and 2 were a pain to market, but afterwards, I had people ordering 4-8 copies of books 3, 4, and 5 while they were on preorder. Thing is, it looks like only about half the people who read books 1 and 2 moved onto the rest.

 

[Demesnedenoir]

There is a variety of freedoms. If you compare a trad author making 200k per year and an indie author making 200k per year, the indie has more freedom and autonomy.

Okay, that's fair.

Some of the people who make a living at self-publishing use a strategy of writing lots of smaller books. If you publish four shorter books in a year, then it's not 500 readers, but 500 readers times 4 books, and that all adds up. And a traditional publisher might give up on the series earlier than you would.

Contracts vary on points like those, so it's not given that a contract will prevent you from continuing the series, but it might.

So that's something to consider.



No, success is freedom. Making a living doing the thing you enjoy doing is where the freedom is.

 

[Demesnedenoir]

If publishing was all about 100% read through it'd be the good life, LOL.

The series strategy does seem to work even at my miniscule level. Books 1 and 2 were a pain to market, but afterwards, I had people ordering 4-8 copies of books 3, 4, and 5 while they were on preorder. Thing is, it looks like only about half the people who read books 1 and 2 moved onto the rest.

 

[Malik]

As some of the old folks on this board know, I had a runaway hit on my hands as an indie back in 2017.

While things were getting insane, I had a no-sh*tter conversation with an acquiring editor at the fantasy imprint of a Big 5. He told me I'd have to be nuts to sign with his company. He said 5000 sales of a debut, for them, was a breakout hit. Most first-time authors on a Big 5 don't sell one-tenth of that. I'd already sold twice that. He couldn't promise me better sales than I was already getting, and he noted--correctly--that I'd take a serious blow to my receipts.

I found an agent who specializes in working with successful indies, primarily negotiating rights deals. She got me some very nice advances and a distribution deal, and is now shopping the first book of my next series to Big 5's, because she thought it was saleable. (Between you and me, she's right.)

I finished the manuscript in 2021, and one major publisher has now had it for TWO YEARS, "under consideration." Wonderful reply emails gushing about the writing, the characterization, the suspension of disbelief, the cross-genre potential. Two more publishers have had it for over a year, also gushing. So much gushing.

All this time, it could have been money in the bank. I say this because the last time a major held a manuscript of mine this long, I self-published it and it's now sold 20,000 copies, the last few thousand at $9.99 a pop for ebooks and I'm keeping 75% . Find me a Big 5 who'll pay you $7.50 on every ebook sale. I'll wait.

The only reason we're still pulling at the majors' sleeves is that indies, at least in SF/F, don't get considered for awards. This is super big-headed and gauche of me, I know. However, my second novel ended up 23rd on a Goodreads list for the Hugo Award the year it came out. As an indie, it never made the official longlist--it couldn't, because as I understand it, the award shows were (are still?) funded in large part by big publishers.

I don't expect the book we're shopping right now to win, and I'm not saying it will; I want just one shot at the title.

That said, this is the only point in my life where I've said to myself, "You know? It'd be okay to have less money." I'll willingly take a bath on this book if it means I get my shot, and I'll go back to being an indie after this, because I really like money. Realistically, I'm probably self-publishing it this year, though, in which case, screw 'em.

 

[Demesnedenoir]

The brass ring is always a temptation. The awards are also getting more and more political, and hell, they probably started that way. Worse now. I had interest from a publisher on the upcoming Contessa of Mostul Ûbar, and the MS moseyed on over to... I'm not sure if it was technically a sensitivity reader... but I got this email mentioning a few things, and that brought on flashbacks to a screenplay that had interest about 20 years back and the song and dance surrounding that. Totally different issues, but... it gave me the heebie jeebies. I declined a couple of agent offers, who were interested because the publisher was interested, and said screw it, much like I did with Hollywood back then. Only in publishing I need a MUCH lower budget to go indie. Thank God.

As some of the old folks on this board know, I had a runaway hit on my hands as an indie back in 2017.

While things were getting insane, I had a no-sh*tter conversation with an acquiring editor at the fantasy imprint of a Big 5. He told me I'd have to be nuts to sign with his company. He said 5000 sales of a debut, for them, was a breakout hit. Most first-time authors on a Big 5 don't sell one-tenth of that. I'd already sold twice that. He couldn't promise me better sales than I was already getting, and he noted--correctly--that I'd take a serious blow to my receipts.

I found an agent who specializes in working with successful indies, primarily negotiating rights deals. She got me some very nice advances and a distribution deal, and is now shopping the first book of my next series to Big 5's, because she thought it was saleable. (Between you and me, she's right.)

I finished the manuscript in 2021, and one major publisher has now had it for TWO YEARS, "under consideration." Wonderful reply emails gushing about the writing, the characterization, the suspension of disbelief, the cross-genre potential. Two more publishers have had it for over a year, also gushing. So much gushing.

All this time, it could have been money in the bank. I say this because the last time a major held a manuscript of mine this long, I self-published it and it's now sold 20,000 copies, the last few thousand at $9.99 a pop for ebooks and I'm keeping 75% . Find me a Big 5 who'll pay you $7.50 on every ebook sale. I'll wait.

The only reason we're still pulling at the majors' sleeves is that indies, at least in SF/F, don't get considered for awards. This is super big-headed and gauche of me, I know. However, my second novel ended up 23rd on a Goodreads list for the Hugo Award the year it came out. As an indie, it never made the official longlist--it couldn't, because as I understand it, the award shows were (are still?) funded in large part by big publishers.

I don't expect the book we're shopping right now to win, and I'm not saying it will; I want just one shot at the title.

That said, this is the only point in my life where I've said to myself, "You know? It'd be okay to have less money." I'll willingly take a bath on this book if it means I get my shot, and I'll go back to being an indie after this, because I really like money. Realistically, I'm probably self-publishing it this year, though, in which case, screw 'em.

 

[Malik]

Any way you slice it, it's indie for me unless someone wants to send me a big check, heh heh.

This.

One other reason for wanting a Big 5 deal is that I already have two bestselling books out; it's a chance to get my backlist out to a whole new audience at 75 points on the back end. You can bet your ass that I'll have completed my first series before a trade publisher puts out the first book of the next one. Hype builds hype; that's just good business.

 

[Demesnedenoir]

That's basically what one guy did from what I understand. he was raking it in Indie and figured he lost about 250k upfront when signing with—I'm going to say Hatchett or one of their imprints—but they boomed his backlist sales, onboarded a whole new reading crowd, and last I heard he was looking at turning down a 7 figure deal on his next series and staying indie because they wouldn't budge on his audio rights. My memory on the specifics is vague, but the gist is dead on.

This.

One other reason for wanting a Big 5 deal is that I already have two bestselling books out; it's a chance to get my backlist out to a whole new audience at 75 points on the back end. You can bet your ass that I'll have completed my first series before a trade publisher puts out the first book of the next one. Hype builds hype; that's just good business.

 

[Malik]

The brass ring is always a temptation. The awards are also getting more and more political, and hell, they probably started that way. Worse now. I had interest from a publisher on the upcoming Contessa of Mostul Ûbar, and the MS moseyed on over to... I'm not sure if it was technically a sensitivity reader... but I got this email mentioning a few things, and that brought on flashbacks to a screenplay that had interest about 20 years back and the song and dance surrounding that. Totally different issues, but... it gave me the heebie jeebies.

I get you. This MS happens to have a disabled POC MC from the same tribe and Reservation as my stepfather, and also as my maternal grandfather. Plus a gay lovestory subplot and a deep-dive into intersectionality issues arising in modern-day SOF toward the end of the war, something nobody--I mean NOBODY--dares mention, even still. I didn't do it intentionally; these are stories I witnessed and need to tell. And it seems to resonate. We'll see.

(ETA: plus elves, dragons, hot sex, Navy SEALs, a government conspiracy, and a duel between a wizard and a self-propelled howitzer. Who's not gonna buy it?)

 

[Demesnedenoir]

My next book after The Contessa will have no shot in hell with the Big 5 and will probably ruin any chance I have with them ever. Politically correct, it ain't. That's why I even thought about publishers with The Contessa is because it was probably my last chance. It wasn't intentional either, I set up the story in book two and have had it planned for a decade, but... the times change.

I get you. This MS happens to have a disabled POC MC from the same tribe and Reservation as my stepfather, and also as my maternal grandfather. Plus a gay lovestory subplot and a deep-dive into intersectionality issues arising in modern-day SOF toward the end of the war, something nobody--I mean NOBODY--dares mention, even still. I didn't do it intentionally; these are stories I witnessed and need to tell. And it seems to resonate. We'll see.